Candidate recruitment is critical for Republicans in their campaigns to take back the Senate in 2022 after crushing losses in Georgia last cycle gave Democrats a slim majority, thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote.
In New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is up for a second term, there is a clear powerhouse who could bolster Republicans’ chances there: Gov. Chris Sununu.
The 46-year-old Republican governor is in his third two-year term, continuing a political dynasty — his father John H. Sununu was governor from 1983 to 1989 before being President George H.W. Bush’s chief of staff, and his brother John E. Sununu was a senator from 2003 to 2009 after three terms in the House. In 2020, Sununu was reelected with 65% of the vote, outperforming former President Donald Trump (who lost the state) by 20 points.
He boasts accomplishments over the last four years such as vetoing a Democratic income tax proposal, keeping a balanced budget, and legalizing sports betting. A quarter of the state’s residents have received at least one coronavirus vaccine, putting New Hampshire in the top tier of states for vaccine distribution.
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“He’s the most popular politician in the state Republican or Democrat, so I would think that would make him Republicans’ first choice to take on Maggie Hassan next year, no question,” University of New Hampshire political science professor Dante Scala told the Washington Examiner.
The first two public polls testing Hassan’s strength in the 2022 primary certainly back Sununu’s dominance as a candidate. A Feb. 18-22 University of New Hampshire poll found him beating Hassan 48% to 46%, the only potential Republican candidate polling ahead of the incumbent senator. He was also up 47% to 41% for Hassan in a March 4-6 Saint Anselm College poll.
But the question remains open: Will he run? He declined to run against Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in 2020 despite saying, “We all know that I would defeat” her.
“Some politicians really like the executives, they like running things, they like managing, and being a U.S. senator,” complete with its defining gridlock, “is unattractive,” Scala said. And governors can expect to take a hit to approval ratings or election chances if they are perceived as focusing too much on running for higher office rather than running the state.
Sununu has kept open to the possibility of running for Senate without teasing it too heavily, but his team hinted at timing for announcing potential run — or not: July or later.
“No question about it — Chris Sununu loves being Governor. He has not decided what comes next. His focus remains on guiding New Hampshire through COVID, ramping up vaccine distribution, and passing a state budget with across the board tax cuts,” Sununu spokesman Ben Vihstadt, speaking in a personal capacity, said in a statement to the Washington Examiner. “His next steps could be running for re-election, running for US Senate, or returning to the private sector to spend more time with his family, and expects a decision will be made sometime after the legislative session ends in June.”
The New Hampshire Senate race is not necessarily make-or-break for Republicans based on Sununu running, though.
“If Sununu declines, that doesn’t mean Republicans’ hopes are dashed,” Scala said.
Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who served one term in the Senate before being narrowly defeated by Hassan in 2016 by just 1,017 votes, is another potential candidate and has the name recognition to be a serious candidate.
“You can make a good case that what’s gonna matter more in this race is not whether it’s Sununu or Ayotte, but what does President Biden’s approval number look like on Labor Day in 2022?” Scala said.
Hassan did best other potential challengers in matchups in the University of New Hampshire poll: 48% to 43% against Ayotte, ahead of retired Gen. Don Bolduc 52% to 39%, and ahead of former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski 53% to 34%.
But Scala warned: “We’re talking about someone who barely won election to the U.S. Senate very highly contested race. You look at her approval numbers — they’re OK, but they’re not terrific.”
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In the two early matchup polls against potential challengers, she has less than 50% support, and she has less than 50% in approval ratings. That’s in the danger zone for incumbent candidates.
“New Hampshire is a swing state, but it really swings the most wildly in those midterm elections,” Scala said. “Maggie Hassan can’t take anything for granted.”
