An Iranian Escalation

There have been rumors for several days now that an attack in Karbala that resulted in the deaths of five American soldiers earlier this month was carried out directly by Iranian special forces. The American soldiers were meeting with local officials, and security was fairly tight. The attackers, 12 men disguised as American soldiers, were able to slip into the compound and capture four U.S. soldiers, leaving one more dead and several wounded. The attackers fled east from Karbala in a convoy of SUVs, and soon aroused suspicions at an Iraqi checkpoint. The Iraqi police gave pursuit and found the trucks abandoned some 30 miles down the road, with two murdered American soldiers in the back of one truck, and another two laying dead on the road. The efficiency, sophistication, and complexity of the attack all raised red-flags in the military community. As early as January 26, Bill Roggio was writing that, “based on the sophisticated nature of the raid, as well as the response, or cryptic non-responses, from multiple military and intelligence sources, this raid appears to have been directed and executed by the Qods Force branch of the Iranian Republican Guard Corps.” Other military bloggers drew the same conclusion, or were hearing the same things from their sources. Now CNN has confirmation from two different officials at the Defense Department–“the Iranian connection [is] a leading theory in the investigation.” Less than a week after the attack, President Bush announced that he had authorized American forces to kill or capture any Iranian agents found operating in Iraq. And administration officials made known their intention to offer substantial proof of Iranian meddling in Iraq. But now those plans have been put on hold. Why would the administration hold back a “dossier” with detailed information about Iranian involvement in Iraq? In this country, the case against Iran is being made by the media already, and without much help from the administration. That Iran is supplying insurgent groups with weapons, training, and explosives is no longer a matter of speculation, but of fact, with new stories on the subject coming daily from mainstream media outlets. But the case against Iran has yet to be made effectively to the international community, which the administration has seemed so desperate to convince of the need for sanctions. One possible explanation is that the administration has evidence of Iranian involvement that is so provocative that it would demand a serious American response–a response the administration just isn’t prepared to undertake. Marvin Hutchens of threatswatch.org, speculated that “Negropante and company are withholding the report because they don’t have an answer they can give in the current political climate (as to what to do next). The proper response to a nation making war on you is to respond in full kind. That is not something that can happen today–and in DC any discussion of doing so would end in disaster as the Iranians would receive more support than our Commander-in-Chief.”

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Last week at Davos, Senator John Kerry called the United States an “international pariah” while seated next to former Iranian president Mohammed Khatami.

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