ORLANDO — Florida Republicans are deeply divided as they prepare for a straw poll that could be a key predictor of who will win the GOP presidential nomination. On one side are those who believe that, because defeating Barack Obama is so critically important, they must select a candidate who can appeal to independent voters. On the other side are those who believe the best result will come from picking a candidate on conservative principle and not on the sometimes hard-to-discern preferences of those in the political middle.
Republicans in the first category tend to support Mitt Romney, who despite his flaws they see as the likely nominee when all is said and done. Republicans in the second category might support any number of lower-tier candidates, from Herman Cain to Newt Gingrich to Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann. And what of Rick Perry, still the frontrunner in the race? After Thursday night’s debate — most of the people gathered here in Orlando were in the room for the debate and paid close attention to the leading candidates — Republicans are reassessing their early positive opinions of the Texas governor.
“I’m very disappointed in Rick Perry,” says Tuny, of Vero Beach. “I was wanting to come away saying he’s our guy, and I didn’t get that.”
“I liked him when he first came out,” says Narda, of Clearwater. “The more I hear about him, the more I think he’s just a flash in the pan. I don’t think he’s going to make it in the long run.”
“I was going to vote for him [in the straw poll],” says George of Tampa. “I was pretty sure I was going to go for him, and then I saw the debate. The immigration thing really irritated me.”
These are people who approached the debate hoping to see Perry do well. Some were unhappy with his positions on immigration — his suggestion that people who oppose him on tuition subsidies for the children of illegal immigrants are heartless rankled many here. But others were disappointed with his performance overall, and for them, a turning point came when Perry tried to portray Romney as a flip-flopper. Nothing wrong with that — a lot of them do see Romney as a flip-flopper. But instead of mounting a crisp attack, Perry seemed to mangle the moment.
“I thought Rick Perry, when he was going back and forth comparing Romney’s flip-flopping, it’s like he lost his train of thought,” says Myra of Fort Lauderdale. “I was sitting eight rows from the front, and you could literally feel the energy in the room change. It was almost like a collective, silent groan.”
“The debate last night showed more weaknesses than anything else,” says David, of Mt. Dora. “I was disappointed in Rick Perry. It’s like the room just turned into a vacuum when he started getting confused with his great crescendo.”
Even those who weren’t unhappy with Perry are growing tired of watching Perry and Romney focus almost exclusively on each other during debates. Thursday’s was the third straight debate in which that happened, and some Republicans here in Orlando don’t want to see any more episodes of what they’re calling the Rick and Mitt Show. “I don’t like the situation where they have Perry and Romney next to each other in a food fight,” says Mark, of Port St. Lucie. “They’re talking to each other, they’re not talking to us.”
“I think they were too much into themselves and between themselves,” says Bruce, of Tampa. “It’s like they were in a room with each other.”
“I don’t think that served any particular purpose for either campaign,” says James, of Melbourne.
At this point it’s hard to tell how much the disappointment in Perry, and the unhappiness with a two-man race, will change Republicans’ approach to the straw poll. But there is undoubtedly a lot of support for other candidates among the Republicans gathered here. And they’re trying to calculate how much weight to give to their own conservative instincts and how much to give to the question of electability.
“I would love to see a Cain and Gingrich ticket,” says Margie, of Melbourne. “I haven’t figured out which one I want to be president and which one I want to be VP.”
“I like Herman Cain, but because he has not been elected to any public office, I will be supporting Mitt Romney in the straw poll,” says Robin, of Clearwater. “Romney pulled ahead at the debate. He stared down Perry and won.”
The question that divides these Republicans is whether it would be better for the GOP to choose a candidate seen as moderate in hopes of winning the votes of independents, or whether Republicans should choose a full-throated conservative. Some, like Robin, are trying to make that calculation. Others are straight-ahead conservatives.
“I believe our ideology is crucial now, because if we cater to the middle, like we did with McCain, we will lose the heart and soul of the party — the Tea Party,” says John, of Port St. Lucie.
“I think the independents, as much as everybody thinks they matter — I don’t think they matter,” says Narda, the woman from Clearwater who at first liked Perry. “One of the things I think we’ve made mistakes on is picking people like McCain, who had that broad base, and it was his turn. That’s a problem that Republicans have always made. So what we need to do is find a candidate who has the ideology, the message that people need to hear, and I think people will go along. I think we need a conservative candidate because Obama is so far to the left.”
So where do things stand now? It would be an understatement to say the race remains in flux. Indeed, in this key electoral state, it appears to be completely fluid — just like it was months ago. Many Republicans left the Orlando debate, more, not less, uncertain about which candidate to support.
