Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous calculation, noting that most people have followed the health guidelines put in place by both state and federal governments.
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The total number of deaths from the model was 68,841, with an estimated range of 30,188 to 175,965, but was updated to 60,308, with an estimated range of 34,063 to 140,381.
“We are seeing the numbers decline because some state and local governments, and, equally important, individuals around the country have stepped up to protect their families, their neighbors, and friends and coworkers by reducing physical contact,” IHME Director Christopher Murray explained in a statement.
“Now, the challenge — as well as opportunity — is for states to figure out how to reopen the U.S. economy and allow people to get back to work without sacrificing that progress,” Murray added. “Relaxing social distancing too soon carries great risks of a resurgence of new infections. No one wants to see this vicious cycle repeating itself.”
The organization also concluded that the United States “may have” reached the peak of the pandemic earlier this week, when 2,481 people died on Wednesday.
The evaluation revealed that some states may be able to relax some of their social distancing measures “as early as May 4.” It specifically noted that Vermont, West Virginia, Montana, and Hawaii were the states that could be able to reopen sooner than other states, including Iowa, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Utah, Arkansas, and Oklahoma, which may need to wait until late June or early July.
