Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will meet for their first one-on-one debate Monday night, during which both candidates will work to convince voters that they are fit to be commander in chief and capable of ushering in a new era of American prosperity.
Depending on how both candidates perform, the debate could prove to make a difference in key battleground states where either candidate is polling within the margin of error against the other and needs to make inroads with certain demographics in order to pull ahead. Experts predict the debate could draw as many as 100 million viewers, some of whom are likely to be assessing both candidates and their policies for the first time this cycle.
The following national polls released in the last 24 hours and separate state-level averages compiled by RealClearPolitics show where Trump and Clinton stand before their first 90-minute battle:
NBC News/SurveyMonkey: This national poll released Monday shows Hillary Clinton ahead by 7 percentage points — 51 to 44 percent — in a two-way race against Donald Trump. The former secretary of state carries a 23-point lead among voters age 18 to 29, a group she has largely struggled to win over, but trails Trump among voters age 45 and older.
Bloomberg Politics: After carrying a 6-point edge over her Republican opponent last month, the latest Bloomberg politics poll of likely voters nationwide shows Clinton’s lead collapsing. She and Trump are tied at 46 percent each in a two-way race, and Trump carries a 2-point lead when Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson (8 percent) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (4 percent) are included. The poll also found Trump supporters to be slightly more enthusiastic about the billionaire than Clinton’s supporters are of her.
Monmouth University: Clinton carries a 5-point lead over Trump in this poll, released on Monday afternoon, though her previous edge among independent voters has taken a dive. The Democratic presidential hopeful now trails Trump by 6 percentage points among independents and she has also seen an increase in the percentage of voters who view her unfavorably. Still, a majority of voters viewed Clinton as temperamentally fit to be president, while only 35 percent said the same of her opponent.
Quinnipiac University: In a head-to-head matchup, Clinton carries a single-point lead over Trump in this poll and is seen by 41 percent of voters as the most likely winner of Monday’s debate. However, Clinton’s Sept. 11 health scare — later revealed as a pneumonia diagnosis by her campaign — has left 31 percent of voters saying she isn’t healthy enough to lead the country. Only 18 percent said the same of Trump, who, like Clinton, released additional medical records earlier this month.
Washington Post/ABC News: Released on the eve of the debate, this polls found Trump gaining ground among core voting blocs and further closing the gap between him and Clinton. The former first lady carries a 2-point lead over Trump — 46 to 44 percent — among likely voters, marking a significant decline from the 8-point lead she carried in early August. More than three-quarters of non-college educated white men backed Trump, while only 17 percent supported Clinton, though the Democratic hopeful has extended her lead among college-educated white women by 10 points since last month.
The same poll emphasized the difficulty Clinton has had convincing voters that she is straightforward and truthful. Only 36 percent of respondents described Clinton as “honest and trustworthy.”
Economist/YouGov: Also released on Sunday, this poll gave Clinton a 3-point lead among registered voters nationwide in a four-way race against Trump, Johnson and Stein. When reduced to just her and Trump, Clinton’s lead grew to 4 percentage points — 48 to 44 percent. A little over a third of respondents predicted that Clinton will narrowly win the presidency in November, while only 23 percent predicted a narrow victory for Trump.
