Michele Bachmann, once a rising star of the Republican presidential field, is sinking into political oblivion.
The latest national poll, released Tuesday by CBS and the New York Times, shows the Minnesota congresswoman with just 2 percent of the vote, her lowest showing since April 1. Moreover, the candidate who won the Iowa straw poll in August is now in fifth place in the Hawkeye State and even further back in other early-primary states.
If Bachmann, a Tea Party favorite, is unable to make a strong showing at the Iowa caucus 10 weeks from now, she’ll have few places to turn to revive her campaign.
Bachmann has invested little in New Hampshire, a point underscored last week when her entire Granite State campaign staff quit, and she is running at the back of the pack in Florida and South Carolina, two other critical nominating states.
“For New Hampshire, she’s a total write-off,” said Patrick Hynes, a GOP strategist based in Concord. “She has absolutely no operation going here and what she had going just quit. She’s a nonfactor at this point.”
Bachmann’s campaign strategy has baffled even her own team.
Her New Hampshire staff walked after complaining Bachmann was making no effort to win there.
Karen Testerman, one of Bachmann’s former New Hampshire staffers, told The Washington Examiner that Bachmann might have had a strong shot in the nation’s first primary if only she had kept up appearances in the state.
“I think she very definitely could have been one of the top three finishers, easily,” Testerman said. “I think her message sells well. She’s very honest with people, and they connect well with her.”
But, Testerman said, Bachmann’s national campaign staff had other ideas.
Bachmann began campaigning in New Hampshire in March and continued making appearances through June. Then, she suddenly stopped coming, Testerman said.
“For some reason the national operatives don’t think she can win in New Hampshire so they are not even going to put her there, which is a real shame,” she added.
Bachmann’s national campaign team did not respond to a request for an interview.
Bachmann’s strongest chance for revival lies in Iowa, where Herman Cain, a former pizza executive selling a 9 percent tax plan, has taken the lead.
Bachmann was once at the top of the field, peaking at the Iowa straw poll in August. But as soon as fellow social conservative Rick Perry, the Texas governor, entered the race, much of her support fled to him. She never recovered, even though Perry, too, dropped to the single digits, because many of her former supporters now back Cain.
After focusing for a while on fundraising, Bachmann has returned to the campaign trail in Iowa, showing up at events and shaking voters’ hands much as she was doing last summer before winning the straw poll.
University of Iowa political science professor Timothy Hagle said Bachmann’s decision to get back to retail politics could salvage her chances in Iowa, but she must win the nation’s first caucus or finish a close second.
“If she ends up in some kind of fourth- or fifth-place finish,” Hagle said, “she might be able to continue, but I think the writing will really be on the wall at that point.”
