If you listen to some election prognosticators, you get the sense that the 2008 election is already over. It sometimes seems as if the only questions left are whether the Democrats will have 60 Senate seats and if so, how long it will take to approve single-payer health care. Political analyst Stu Rothenberg pens a piece at Roll Call (subscription required) that explains one reason why such expectations are premature–at least with regard to the House of Representatives:
It’s helpful to remember that a dozen Republicans elected in the sweep of 1994 were defeated two years later. With the current Democratic edge in the House at just fifteen seats, it would not take much more than that to shift control back to the Republicans. Of the thirty House Democrats elected in formerly Republican seats last year, Rothenberg sees 12 freshmen as more or less ‘safe’ for 2008 and five as ripe for defeat:
The remaining thirteen seats are Republican opportunities ‘that will not fall easily.’ Add in the non-Freshman Democrats that the GOP may target (which now appears to include just a handful of seats), and the potential is there again to flip control of the House. That’s provided that Republicans hold most or all of the vulnerable open seats they have. It would be foolish to predict a great Republican year based on the political climate today, but Rothenberg provides a helpful reality check for those inclined to the opposite extreme. If the cards fall the right way, it’s entirely possible a Republican will be sworn in as Speaker in January, 2009.
