Chris Bowers is one of the brighter minds on the left side of the blogosphere — particularly when it comes to political strategy and analysis. Bowers writes that despite the pro-Democrat mood of the country, Obama cannot be regarded as a favorite in a race against McCain:
The answer is simple, and two-fold. First, John McCain has long outperformed generic Republicans, and is not tightly associated with their brand. Second, no one can unite all of the different Democratic voters on a national level… Had someone else other than John McCain been the Republican nominee, it is probably likely that virtually any Democratic nominee could have united all of the groups. Off-hand I can think of three solutions to this problem. First, lower-ticket Dems are actually going to have to help out the top of the ticket this time around, with Democrats in more Clinton-friendly areas campaigning with Obama (an with both of them campaigning as Democrats). Second, McCain needs to be defined as the conservative Republican that he is. Third, Obama needs to pick a good VP, someone who can bring more of the various Democratic groups together without emphasizing Obama’s weakness among some groups. I might be asking for too much on that one, a pick that is both reinforcing and balancing, but one can always hope.
It seems as if the vice presidential selection will bedevil Obama, particularly given that Clinton seems to be sending clear messages that she wants the job. If she’s perceived as having been shunned, good luck putting the Democratic party back together. Can any other Clinton loyalist accept the nomination if Hillary is denied? Any effort to pull the varied Democratic factions together becomes much harder if the Clintons are undermining the effort. Obama better hope that his vice presidential search manager does a better job than he has in the past.
