The U.S. Chamber of Commerce plans to push Congress in 2019 for a massive infrastructure investment along with overhauls of the immigration and healthcare systems, but its ambitious agenda is likely to butt up against the political realities of a divided government and a looming presidential election.
The group’s leaders know that, and they’re adapting.
The Chamber — which historically has supported Republican candidates who often vote in unison with corporate America’s interests — is revamping how it determines which lawmakers to support, a shift that could mean backing more Democrats.
“We will not base our support solely on casting the right votes — though that remains essential,” CEO Tom Donohue said. “We will give lawmakers credit for showing leadership on good legislation — even if it doesn’t pass or even come up for a vote. And we’re going to take bipartisanship into account.”
The change recognizes what could be a tumultuous year for U.S. businesses. The Trump administration, in an attempt to right a trade imbalance with China and address long-standing complaints from corporate America over the theft of intellectual property, is negotiating with Beijing over a broad trade deal. If that fails, the White House has vowed to more than double tariffs on $200 billion in imports to 25 percent, as well as tack levies onto an additional $267 billion of shipments.
With Democrats in control of the House of Representatives, meanwhile, pharmaceutical manufacturers, financial institutions, and other industries are bracing for enhanced oversight, including the possibility that top executives are forced to appear in front of key congressional committees.
And top U.S. equity markets are teetering between dramatic increases and historic losses, calling into question initial public offerings from companies such as Uber and raising concern that the country’s economy may slow after recent rapid growth. The chamber sees that particular worry as exaggerated.
“Rumblings of a recession just don’t match up with reality,” Donohue said. “Even with all the challenges in Washington, uncertainties in the world, and fluctuations in the markets, strong economic conditions are expected to hold steady for the foreseeable future.”
At the top of the Chamber’s wishlist for 2019 is an immigration package that would protect the so-called Dreamers — children and young adults who were brought into the U.S. illegally but have since obtained temporary legal status.
Addressing that issue has historically been a difficult task for Congress and one that’s unlikely to prove easier with Democrats in control of the House and Republicans maintaining control of the Senate.
Complicating matters is President Trump’s demand for border-wall funding in any compromise legislation. The barrier, along the U.S. border with Mexico, was central to a partial shutdown of the government, and Democrats vowed over the past several weeks to block any funding package that includes money for it.
“Compromise will be necessary, but it’s possible, because each side has something it wants, and each side has something to give,” Donohue said.
The Chamber is simultaneously pushing for a new package of investments in American highways and bridges, even providing $25,000 worth of cash prizes to anyone who comes up with viable ideas to fund the potentially trillion-dollar measure, and urging congressional Democrats to approve Trump’s update to the North American Free Trade Agreement, known as the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement, or USMCA.
Nothing in the chamber’s new strategy, however, changes the fact that a new wave of Democrats attempting to advance far-left policies is unlikely to receive support from the group — which spent nearly $70 million on lobbying last year.
From government-financed healthcare to a wide-reaching environmental package, the push from lawmakers like Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont who caucuses with Democrats, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York comes in advance of what is expected to be a crowded Democratic field seeking to challenge Trump in 2020.
“Failed ideas like socialism or government-managed economies are steadily creeping into the political mainstream,” Donohue told his audience at the Chamber’s “State of American Business” address in January. “The Chamber is focused on defending the profoundly positive role of business in our economy and society — and fighting back against attacks, especially on public companies.”
