Campaign operatives for Ohio Senate rivals Mike Gibbons and Josh Mandel have been quietly collaborating to raise doubts about a poll showing conservative populist J.D. Vance in a three-way tie for first in the May 3 GOP primary.
The survey, conducted by Republican pollster David Lee for the pro-Vance super PAC, Protect Ohio Values, revealed a surging Vance tied up with Gibbons and Mandel at 18% each. The data, reported on April 6, apparently did not sit well with Gibbons and Mandel, whose senior campaign advisers took a break from beating each other up in public to talk behind the scenes and mull working together to refute Lee’s numbers.
Those discussions netted a joint strategy, with both the Gibbons and Mandel campaigns agreeing to publicize portions of their internal polling in a bid to undermine the credulity of the Protect Ohio Values survey. Driving this unusual partnership are shared concerns that Vance will use the data to secure a crucial endorsement from former President Donald Trump, who counts Lee’s business partner, Tony Fabrizio, among his pollsters.
In interviews with the Washington Examiner, the Gibbons and Mandel campaigns disclosed internal polling on Vance’s favorable ratings, arguing there was virtually no way for him to be in contention based on what they found in their surveys.
The Gibbons data showed Vance’s image at 36% favorable/33% unfavorable and trending in the wrong direction. “Vance’s image has become so polarized as to limit his ability to break out of the second tier of candidates,” Gibbons pollster Brock McCleary wrote in a memo. “Among voters who are undecided on the Senate ballot, J.D. Vance’s image is deep in negative territory (-14%).” The Mandel campaign offered a similar assessment, showing Vance at 27% favorable/26% unfavorable.
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“While his name identification has improved some since February (+12%), his favorables have remained the same since September, and his unfavorables have increased 20%,” Mandel pollster Chris Wilson wrote in a memo. “Essentially, as Republican primary voters get to know more about J.D. Vance, the less they like him.”
However, the Gibbons and Mandel campaigns declined to reveal internal horse race numbers. Instead, both pointed to internal polling from Republican Senate contender Jane Timken as reflective of their views of the state of play. Timken’s survey showed Gibbons leading with 20%, followed by Mandel at 16%. Vance was fifth at 10%, trailing Timken’s 15% and Matt Dolan’s 13%. Timken tweeted this survey the same day NBC News reported the Vance super PAC poll.
Luke Thompson, senior strategist for Protect Ohio Values, scoffed at these numbers and suggested that the Gibbons and Mandel campaigns would have disclosed more internal polling data if they were truly confident the Vance super PAC’s numbers were wrong.
“We have every confidence in our numbers. Unlike other efforts, we are focused on winning the race in Ohio, not playing games in the media,” Thompson said. “By the way, where are their horse race numbers?”
Current public polling of the Ohio Republican Senate primary is in short supply, although the RealClearPolitics average of surveys from February and March is similar to the Timken internal from early April. Meanwhile, the Protect Ohio Values poll was conducted March 30 – 31, and data on Vance’s image ratings, shared by the Gibbons and Mandel campaigns, were the product of surveys in the field through April 5.
Gibbons, a wealthy investment banker, and Mandel, the former state treasurer, have fought viciously in recent weeks as both began to see the other as standing in the way of the nomination. In one incident, they nearly came to blows on stage in the middle of a debate. Then, Vance, a former venture capitalist and bestselling author, is looking for a come-from-behind win in a primary that is three weeks away.
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With no clear front-runner, the campaign for the Republican nod, to replace retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman, has turned into a battle to attract the support of one man: Trump. With so many undecided voters and the strong support the former president enjoys among grassroots Republicans in Ohio, his endorsement could tip the scales. Hence, the debate over internal polling, which Trump might review as a part of his decision-making process.
Trump said in an interview with the Washington Examiner in March that he does plan on endorsing in this race.
