Nate Silver sheds light on how Donald Trump might perform in the general election. Because Trump is such a unique candidate, people have been trying to determine how he might perform in the general, if he wins the Republican nomination. Some think his harsh persona will limit his appeal to moderates and independents. Others have recently suggested he would have broad appeal to independents.
In FiveThirtyEight, Silver explains, “Trump is extraordinarily unpopular with independent voters and Democrats.”
Gallup polling conducted over the past six weeks found Trump with a -27-percentage-point net favorability rating among independent voters, and a -70-point net rating among Democrats; both marks are easily the worst in the GOP field. (Trump also has less-than-spectacular favorable ratings among his fellow Republicans.)
Silver also explains that, “Trump’s favorability ratings have been consistently poor,” and any gains made with Republicans were “almost exactly offset by declines among independents and Democrats.”
