Readers deserve a fair chance to decide between the persistent optimism of these columns, and the more numerous and far gloomier forecasts. So let me lay out and consider the worst-case scenario. I report, you decide.

The economy is not merely slowing, it is heading toward recession. New home sales are 34 percent below year-earlier levels, as homes move from builder to buyer at the slowest pace in 13 years. The market for existing homes is no better: sales are down 23 percent, and the inventory of unsold homes has is rising.

Recommended Stories

What to expect when the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates

So Far, So Good

Inflation fell to 3.2% in February in producer index, adding to encouraging news