Gov. Robert Ehrlich continues to face a challenging re-election fight, with both his Democratic rivals ahead of him at this point and his own approval rating stuck at 50 percent, according to a poll released today.
But Baltimore Mayor Martin O?Malley and Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan face their own challenges. O?Malley, the presumed front-runner because of his bigger campaign chest and many endorsements, is only 9 points ahead of Duncan statewide, 44 percent to 35 percent, in the Gonzales Research poll.
A fifth of Democratic primary voters are still undecided. Duncan has a commanding lead over O?Malley in the Washington suburbs (52 percent to 25 percent), while O?Malley has an even larger margin (57 percent to 26 percent) in the Baltimore region. O?Malley leads Duncan in rural areas.
“I think a lot of people assume that the gubernatorial primary is much less competitive than it is,” said Patrick Gonzales, who has been polling for the media and candidates of both parties in Maryland for 25 years.
Duncan campaign manager Scott Arceneaux welcomed the tightening race.
“We have said along that this wasgoing to be a marathon, not a sprint,” Arceneaux said. This contest is not about “who is the flashiest campaigner or has the most support among insiders. This race is about having bigger ideas, not having a bigger mouth.”
Gonzales said “the shifting dynamic in the Democratic primary” has been “underreported.” The Washington suburbs made up 30 percent of the statewide vote in 1998. That went up to 37 percent in 2002, and may be even higher this year, he said.
“Turnout will be one of the key factors,” Gonzales said.
Ehrlich?s job approval rating is not “horrible,” the pollster observed, but “he needs to get his Democratic numbers up by the election” Nov. 7. Ehrlich needs at least a third of Democrats to vote for him to win re-election. In 2002, in the race against Democratic Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, he got 52 percent of the total vote, including 35 percent to 36 percent of Democratic voters. But the current poll shows him getting only half that, 16 percent to 17 percent against either Duncan or O?Malley. Ehrlich holds on to 85 percent of his Republican base and gets about 40 percent of independents. Ehrlich declined to comment.
Bush Plummets
In the new Gonzales poll, President Bush got his lowest approval rating in Maryland, 29 percent, with two-thirds of Marylanders disapproving of his performance. Only 24 percent approve of his handling of the Iraq war; 71 percent disapprove.
