But in the 2004 presidential election, Hispanic support for John Kerry was lower than the historic norm. While there has been much debate over the exact percentage of support that Kerry received from Hispanic voters in 2004, a consensus has emerged that at best Kerry might have received 60% of the Hispanic vote. But no matter what we think the exact percentage was, Hispanic voters were attracted to Bush in greater percentages in 2004 than to any previous Republican presidential candidate in recent history.
Among Hispanics, national security issues and moral values trumped traditional bread and butter concerns like education and health care in 2004, according to Alvarez and Nagler. This provided an opening for George W. Bush to widen his appeal with these Americans.
Democrats have to perform better among Hispanics in order to win the White House this November. Here is the bottom line when it comes to votes: We think that for Democrats to retake the White House in 2008, they must work to get strong Hispanic support–and keep Republican Hispanic support at or below the 35% threshold.
What does the landscape look like in 2008? Alvarez and Nagler don’t think Democrats will have much traction on the immigration issue. They write this:
But now that the context of the presidential race is becoming clearer, it is no longer the case that the immigration issue will necessarily be important in the 2008 general election, nor an issue that the Obama can easily use to win Hispanic votes. There is one reason for this–the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain.
So if immigration won’t work, what will? This is where, I believe, Alvarez and Nagler miss the mark. It sounds like they propose a traditional, liberal message as a strategy. That may work with some Hispanics, but I don’t believe emphasizing these themes will garner more than 60 percent of this constituency’s vote (which is their goal). Here’s their advice:
Thus, there is a basic narrative that Democrats can – and must – develop in order to have a strong Hispanic strategy in 2008. That narrative needs to focus on the core strengths that the Democratic candidate will bring to the table: a progressive message that articulates how the federal government will bring the nation economic growth, how it will provide affordable housing and credit to middle and lower income families, how it will deal with skyrocketing costs for food and energy, how it will make health care available and affordable, how it will make quality education a priority, how it can bring high-quality jobs to all those who want them, and how they will end the war in Iraq.
This story–as they say–is developing.
