How Long Will the Iraq Rift Persist?

Jonathan Rauch has a provocative piece today at the Atlantic. The piece centers on the politics of the eventual Iraq withdrawal — over whatever time span that occurs. He considers the outcome if Democrats control the White House and both Houses of Congress next year:

In 2009, a Democratic president might say something like this: “Every year of this administration, America will reduce its troop strength in Iraq. The downward path is nonnegotiable and ironclad. But the pace is not. If Iraqis try sincerely and strenuously to keep their country together, or if they decentralize enough to keep the peace, and if they produce results, we will help them, including militarily… The bigger problem for a middle way out, I would guess, would be on the Democratic left. So far in the primary campaign, Democratic presidential candidates have had a hard time keeping the door open for any American forces to stay in Iraq. If the Democrats sweep the board this year, doves will say that the public has spoken and wants change. Why in the world should they pace the withdrawal from Iraq at a rate that suits the losing party? Yet if the Democrats were to rush for the exit with Republicans unified against them, they would be blamed by Republicans for whatever subsequent disasters befell Iraq and, for that matter, the whole disaster-prone Middle East. For years, they would face charges of having “cut and run,” which could reinvigorate the debilitating stereotype of Democratic weakness…

In Rauch’s view, control of the White House and Congress by the same party is a recipe for bitterness and recrimination. If each party controls one end of Pennsylvania Avenue, a consensus approach becomes the likely outcome. Indeed, Democratic complaints to the contrary, that’s largely what we have today. If however, Democrats are running the show, and give in to their pacifist wing, they may well be blamed for any downturn in Iraq post-withdrawal. Ideally, Democrats would agree to support the president in negotiating a long-term agreement to promote a stable Iraq — rather than trying to tie his hands. But in the heat of a contested primary, it seems unlikely that any Democrat wants to be seen as making a concession — even if it’s in the national interest.

Related Content