Georgia stands to lose $9.2 billion in Hollywood business

Initially, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp dismissed the Hollywood actors criticizing the so-called heartbeat abortion bill he signed in early May as “C-list celebrities.”

“I understand some folks don’t like this new law,” he added at the state’s GOP convention in Savannah, according to a report from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “I’m fine with that. We’re elected to do what’s right.”

By the end of the month, as major Hollywood studios from Disney to WarnerMedia and Netflix threatened to stop producing films and television shows in the state if the law takes effect, Kemp and state legislators who backed the bill were avoiding questions about the fallout.

The conundrum they face is an obvious and expensive one. Kemp, a Republican, campaigned on a “right to life” platform, fending off a fierce challenge from Democrat Stacey Abrams, but losing Hollywood’s business would be a devastating economic blow to his state.

In the past decade, Georgia has become the top filming location in the U.S., outpacing both California and New York by hosting hits from AMC’s “The Walking Dead” to Netflix’s “Stranger Things.”

Thanks to a generous tax credit approved in the late 2000s, producers spent $2.7 billion in the state in 2018 alone, and the industry generated $9.5 billion in economic impact, topping even the $6.3 billion in investment from companies recruited by the state’s economic development department.

The governor declined to comment on the potential loss of Hollywood jobs and revenue, though his office pointed out that the law, which contests the Supreme Court’s landmark 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade, doesn’t take effect until January and will likely face multiple lawsuits before then.

Neither Georgia House Speaker David Ralston nor President Pro Tem Butch Miller returned messages seeking comment. A spokesman for the Georgia Chamber of Commerce didn’t either.

“I’m very hopeful that the governor will eventually realize that he’s supposed to be governing for everybody, not just trying to push through an agenda that he was talking about on the campaign trail,” state Sen. Jennifer Jordan, a Democrat who opposed the bill, told the Washington Examiner.

“When you push these radical bills or agendas through without regard to the effect, that’s just not in the best interests of anybody in the state, political party or otherwise,” she added. “I do think voters at the end of the day take that into account.”

Kemp, who won 50.2% of the vote in November — barely clearing the majority required to avoid a runoff — has been praised by anti-abortion groups for signing the law, which bans abortions as soon as a heartbeat is detectable. That sometimes happens as early as six weeks, before many women realize they’re pregnant.

The law also allows criminal prosecutions for violations, unless the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest reported to the police or a physician determines the mother’s life is at risk. That conflicts with the Supreme Court’s ruling in Roe that state lawmakers could outlaw abortion only after six months, when the infant could survive outside the womb.

The Georgia law joins measures in states including Alabama and Mississippi that backers hope will make it to the Supreme Court, where they’re betting that justices including President Trump’s appointees, Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch, will overturn Roe.

“Georgia is a state that values life,” Kemp said in a televised signing ceremony for his state’s bill. “I realize that some may challenge it in a court of law. Our job is to do what is right, not what is easy. We are called to be strong and courageous. We will not back down.”

As criticism surged afterward, Cobb County, Ga., acting District Attorney John Melvin likened opponents to both Adolf Hitler’s Third Reich and 20th-century supporters of racial segregation.

“By choosing political convention over humanity and personhood, the opponents of the new Georgia law have taken up the mantle of some of the most loathed figures and maligned moments in the South’s Jim Crow legacy,” Melvin wrote on the commentary website Merion West.

The Georgia branch of the American Civil Liberties Union, which is joining with a labor organization representing film crew workers to contest the new law in court, takes a sharply different position.

“This is a Frankenstein bill. It is cobbled together with ideology, not science,” said Andrea Young, its director. “We stand with women’s rights to make these personal and intimate decisions about when and whether to have or expand a family for themselves. I say that as a mother and a grandmother of a granddaughter, that women have got to have these rights for themselves.”

Her view is shared by actress and activist Alyssa Milano, who joined more than 50 colleagues in signing an open letter warning Ralston and Kemp about the consequences of the legislation before it passed. Other signatories included Sean Penn, Alec Baldwin, Minnie Driver, and Jon Cryer of “Two and a Half Men.”

“This bill would remove the possibility of women receiving reproductive healthcare before most even know they are pregnant and force many women to undergo unregulated, hidden procedures at great risk to their health,” the letter said.

“We can’t imagine being elected officials who had to say to their constituents, ‘I enacted a law that was so evil it chased billions of dollars out of our state’s economy,'” the entertainers added. “It’s not the most effective campaign slogan, but rest assured we’ll make it yours, should it come to pass. This is the precipice on which you stand.”

The fallout may stretch far beyond studios themselves and their employees. The state’s tax credit amounts to up to 30% of a film company’s total investment in a production, and the portion that exceeds Georgia’s tax bill can be transferred. That has led to the development of a lucrative market for the credits, which now sell for about 85 cents on the dollar to some of the state’s wealthier taxpayers. Since those are the people most likely to be large political donors, their reaction to the abortion law could weigh on future elections.

Continuing to film in Georgia would be “very difficult” if the law takes effect, Disney CEO Bob Iger told Reuters on May 29. “I rather doubt we will.”

The largest U.S. movie studio, Disney has filmed hits including “Black Panther” and “Avengers: Endgame” in the state, and its loss would be significant. “Many people who work for us will not want to work there,” Iger said, “and we will have to heed their wishes in that regard.”

Jordan, the state senator, hopes such a boycott can be averted, noting that it would hurt the very people most likely to support the cause for which studios and actors are advocating.

So far, the law’s critics have been “threading the needle in a positive way,” she said, making clear that they aren’t planning to abandon the state, given the pending legal challenge.

“What’s most problematic are the film projects we’re not going to be even getting a pass at because we’re going to go off people’s lists now,” Jordan said. The job of voters who are concerned by the situation, she added, is to make sure that “the people in the seats in the Georgia House, the Georgia Senate, and even the governor’s mansion look very different than the people who passed this law.”

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