A wave of Senate Republican retirements has led to a scramble across the country for resources, influence, and, perhaps most importantly, the blessing of former President Donald Trump.
The open seats — GOP incumbents have announced plans not to seek reelection in Ohio, Alabama, Missouri, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania — have created a void Trump is uniquely positioned to fill. At a time when the party is wrestling with its direction in the post-Trump era, the former president’s involvement in primaries could significantly shape the slate of candidates that the GOP is ultimately forced to back when the general contests begin.
For the Senate primaries and beyond, a team of aides has set up a central destination for candidates seeking Trump’s support to send in their pitches through his political action committee, Save America PAC. Those requests for endorsements then get presented to Trump, a person familiar with the process said, and Trump decides which of the candidates he will meet as he weighs who to back in primaries.
“Trump is making the decisions … not any aides,” the person told the Washington Examiner. “Ultimately, it’s Donald Trump making the decision. It’s no staffer. It’s not Don Jr. It’s Trump. He’s driving the car here, even more so than when he was in the White House.”
TRUMP PLANS TO ENDORSE REPUBLICANS AHEAD OF MIDTERM ELECTIONS
Many conservatives see an opening in the five Senate primaries to send new kinds of lawmakers to the upper chamber — particularly after watching clashes between establishment and populist Republicans unfold for much of Trump’s presidency.
“I think it’s a huge opportunity for conservatives. Most of those seats, like North Carolina and Ohio and Missouri, have pretty moderate incumbent longtime senators in them,” David McIntosh, president of the conservative Club for Growth, told the Washington Examiner. “And there’s an opportunity to really upgrade and get senators in each of those states who would be real champions for freedom, limited government, free markets — the real conservative agenda.”
Trump has already dipped his toe into some races. For example, he endorsed Rep. Jody Hice, a Georgia Republican, on Monday in the Georgia secretary of state race.
But in the five open Senate contests, the former president has given little indication as to who he plans to back. With so much time left on the clock, some around Trump have advised him to withhold his support until the contours of the races come into focus.
Such was the case in Ohio’s GOP Senate primary, where multiple sources involved in the race said former state party chairwoman Jane Timken expected, at one point, to receive Trump’s backing when she entered the race in mid-February. In public remarks since, Timken has leaned on the relationship she forged with Trump when he was president, and she was head of the Republican Party in a key state for him.
However, during a meeting at Mar a Lago several weeks ago, Donald Trump Jr., one of those most closely involved in managing the flow of endorsement requests, cautioned his father against making any decision in the crowded Ohio race until he had a clearer idea of who would be the front-runner, a person familiar with the process said. Trump Jr.’s suggestion was not aimed at denying Timken the endorsement, the person said, but rather aimed at preventing Trump from wading into a crowded field too soon. Also present at the meeting were former aides Bill Stepien, Justin Clark, and Brad Parscale.
Some campaigns and consultants have expressed concerns about an arrangement that allows aides with their own firm — Stepien and Clark launched a shop called National Public Affairs — to oversee an endorsement application process that may pit their own clients against those of rival outfits. But the person involved in the process said rather than slip their own candidates to the top of the list, Stepien, Clark, and others have attempted to “democratize” the process by streamlining it more. Previously, only those with connections or Trump’s cellphone number could ensure their pitches were heard.
Timken will likely face a crowded primary field. Josh Mandel, former Ohio state treasurer, has announced his intention to run, and J.D. Vance, author of Hillbilly Elegy, Rep. Mike Gibbons, and Rep. Warren Davidson have all publicly weighed running as well, among others.
Mandel has already earned Club for Growth’s endorsement. McIntosh said the group’s polling showed Mandel in the lead. But Trump is likely to take his time in a race like the Ohio primary, McIntosh said, in part because he likes to seek advice from a broad range of people before making a decision when he doesn’t have a preexisting personal relationship with a candidate or when he is not trying to unseat someone specific, like in the case of the Hice endorsement.
“When there’s a race where there’s still an open field … he’s methodical in the sense that he’ll take his time to make sure it’s the right candidate,” McIntosh said.
Trump has signaled he may not hold past criticism of himself against the candidates seeking his support.
“I’m giving endorsements, and I’m endorsing people that have been good for us and good for the Republican Party and that have voted our way,” Trump said on an episode of The Truth with Lisa Boothe podcast published Monday. “And if they’ve said something a little bit off-color with respect to me, I can handle that. If they’ve voted our way.”
However, that hasn’t stopped campaigns from trying to place anti-Trump quotes from rivals in front of the former president as they work to undermine others in their respective primary fields. Notoriously sensitive to critique, Trump has discarded aides and allies for even minor instances of perceived disloyalty in the past — and some campaigns looking to box out their opponents have hoped to exploit his sensitivity.
And despite the attempts to level the playing field for primary candidates by providing them with an equal opportunity to apply for an endorsement, no gatekeeper exists to stop others from working back channels to lock down support.
Some candidates, such as Lynda Blanchard, the former ambassador to Slovenia running in the Alabama Senate primary, have chosen to hold fundraisers at Mar a Lago, or at least paid the club a visit, as they court Trump’s endorsement. Others have worked to forge relationships with Trump advisers as consultants or confidantes in the hopes they can leverage those ties to get to the former president.
Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and former top aide to Sen. Marco Rubio, said it’s likely too early to determine precisely how a Trump endorsement would affect a Senate primary.
“To the extent that Trump can help a candidate clear a primary, like he did with [Sarah] Huckabee [Sanders] in Arkansas, that’s obviously helpful,” Conant told the Washington Examiner. “But in a multi-candidate primary, there’s going to be a lot of factors at play.”
Conant was referring to the Arkansas governor’s race, which Trump’s former press secretary entered in January with an endorsement from him in hand — likely preventing other would-be candidates from joining the contest in the first place.
But other Republicans see a chance for Trump to have a huge effect on the Senate primaries — in part because of where many are occurring.
“If you take a look at the five, clearly states like Alabama and Ohio and even Missouri are really Trump country … where the president performed really well,” said Mark Serrano, a Republican strategist who worked with Trump’s reelection campaign. “His numbers between ‘16 and ‘20 were virtually the same in those states, but actually he increased his vote percentage slightly in each of those states.”
Serrano said the remnants of Trump’s ground game in the five states, coupled with his sky-high approval rating among Republican primary voters, could give the former president historic influence over the Senate contests.
“A Trump endorsement brings needed attention, resources, grassroots organization — there are a lot of things it provides,” he said.
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However, not all of the five Senate Republican primaries present Trump with an equal calculation.
Rep. Mo Brooks, an Alabama Republican, launched his primary bid to replace retiring Sen. Richard Shelby on Monday evening alongside one of Trump’s top former aides, Stephen Miller. Given his preexisting relationship with Trump — Brooks led an unsuccessful effort in the House to challenge the results of the election in January — Brooks has an easier path to securing a Trump endorsement than someone the former president doesn’t know well, people involved in the process said. The timing of a Trump announcement in Alabama could therefore come much earlier than other races, such as in Missouri, where an obvious heir to the endorsement has not yet emerged.
