Insurgency against Mitch McConnell could falter for lack of alternative

Steve Bannon, President Trump’s former chief strategist, is raising resources and recruiting candidates to challenge incumbent Republicans in 2018 primaries who are loyal to McConnell, in a bid to drain the political support for his leadership from the Senate.

But he and his co-conspirators, insurgent conservative figures and grassroots organizations also pressuring McConnell to step down, haven’t identified a senator willing to challenge the Kentucky Republican, never mind beat him.

“This is one of the active conversations taking place right now: Who is the horse to ride in the majority leader elections?” Ned Ryun, founder and CEO of American Majority, told the Washington Examiner.

Related: Steve Bannon’s revolt against Mitch McConnell gets underway

The Democratic and Republican caucuses in the House and Senate hold elections every two years to choose their leaders. These contests are held after the national general election and just as the next two-year legislative session is about to begin. But there is nothing preventing a member from challenging for a leadership post before then.

That hasn’t happened too often in recent years because few among the influx of new Republicans who won seats in successive GOP midterm waves have been interested in running for leadership. Many are principled conservatives; most aren’t comfortable with the philosophical compromises often required to lead a majority coalition in the Congress, nor the wrath they would likely incur from the grassroots and conservative media.

Indeed, House Speaker Paul Ryan was a darling of the Right as young backbencher pushing Republicans in Congress to adopt more fiscally conservative policies. Their romance waned after the Wisconsin Republican became Budget Committee Chairman and had to focus on developing consensus legislation.

So, as Bannon and his fellow insurgents plot against McConnell, they’re confronted with the challenge that the senators they would prefer hold sway over the Senate — populist-oriented Republicans like Ted Cruz of Texas and Mike Lee of Utah aren’t interested in the top job — or probably any leadership perch. It’s unclear they could win a slot if they ran, given likely resistance from pragmatic and centrist Republicans.

These factors have contributed to McConnell’s longevity, as has his adeptness at the inside game. “None of the young turks want to take McConnell on,” a Republican lobbyist with relationships in the Senate said, on condition of anonymity in order to speak candidly.

Bannon is targeting Senate Republicans who are reliable votes for Trump’s agenda and are rarely if ever openly critical of the president. Even some of his targets who do have antagonistic relations with Trump still vote with him on legislation more than 90 percent of the time.

His goal is to field challenger candidates in GOP primaries who vow to oppose McConnell for majority leader after the 2018 elections, when the Kentuckian is expected to seek another two years at the top.

Some Republican strategists who primarily advise outsider candidates argue that McConnell’s image has become so toxic with the GOP, incumbents with otherwise pristine conservative voting records could lose their primaries — unless they disavow the majority leader.

In last month’s special election in Alabama, a GOP primary runoff, to nominate a Republican to compete to permanently fill the seat formerly held U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions, the candidate McConnell backed, appointed Sen. Luther Strange, lost to Bannon’s pick, retired judge Roy Moore.

Political operatives who opposed Strange in that race credit Moore’s victory in part to exploiting McConnell’s poor image to drive voters to Moore, and contend that strategy can be replicated next year in Republican Senate primaries.

In a memorandum on the Alabama race titled, “The Return of the Civil War and the Fall of Mitch McConnell,” GOP strategist Jordan Gehrke said that running against McConnell in a primary has become just as potent an attack as tying a Democratic candidate to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., in a general election in a Republican-leaning House district. (Note of disclosure: Jordan’s brother, Joel Gehrke, is a reporter at the Washington Examiner.)

“If you want to win Senate primaries, put Mitch McConnell on the ballot,” Gehrke wrote in his memo. Gehrke advised Rep. Mo Brooks, R-Ala., in round one of the Special Senate election in Alabama. His candidate was buried under an avalance of attack ads financed by McConnell’s super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund.

“Mitch McConnell has been focused on trying to accomplishing the Trump agenda, where diffuse parts of party haven’t,” countered Josh Holmes, a McConnell confidant and the majority leader’s former chief of staff. Expect Republicans supportive of McConnell, and opposed to the populist revolt generally, to make a similar argument — that Bannon is engaged in a power grab that has nothing do with helping Trump or furthering conservative reform.

It’s unclear if the forces interested in influencing GOP primaries will be united on this strategy, another potential pitfall Bannon faces in realizing his plan to sweep out incumbents.

The Club for Growth, a preeminent conservative advocacy group active in House and Senate primaries, said it would stick to its usual priorities, finding and electing Republicans who back the organization’s free-market agenda.

The Club for Growth opposed Trump in the Republican presidential primary last year, and is not necessarily predisposed to back Bannon’s populist economic agenda that includes squeezing free trade and protecting entitlement programs, although it has yet to clash with the nationalist firebrand and could sympathetic to plan to shake up GOP leadership in the Senate.

“When we vet candidates, we look at two things, their allegiance, or lack thereof, to pro-growth economic issues, and their viability to win the race,” said Andrew Roth, vice president of government affairs for the group.