Baltimore City Mayor Martin O?Malley?s call for an appeal of U.S. Census Bureau data raises the question of how much Census numbers matter in an election year.
“For O?Malley, that?s key,” said Shawn J. Parry-Giles, associate professor and director at the Center for Political Communication & Civic Leadership Communication at the University of Maryland, College Park.
“You can see the negative ads already. His opponents can say, ?If he can?t run Baltimore, how can he possibly run the State of Maryland?? ” he said.
O?Malley will appeal the latest U.S. Census Bureau numbers, which say Baltimore is losing about 500 residents per month, his spokeswoman said. City Hall officials say they are usually right in their appeals, and the number of people that data shows leaving Baltimore will shrink.
“If he?s successful in an appeal, it?s going to at least challenge his opponents? argument,” Parry-Giles said. “It?s going to call the evidence into question. In a campaign year, it?s always about dueling evidence.”
Richard Vatz, professor of rhetoric and mass communication at Towson University, said that in a close election, numbers matter.
“O?Malley wants to get every number on his side, whether it?s accurate or not,” he said. “He?s trying to portray a Baltimore whose problems are fading away.”
But Vatz cautioned political handicappers not to read too much into statistics.
“All these statistics whirl around in people?s minds and eventually become noise in the background,” he said. “When you have people who like O?Malley and Ehrlich, you would need a major bit of news to change opinions. It?s unlikely people will say, ?Well, population numbers are down, so I?m not going to vote for O?Malley.? ”
Tom Schaller, associate professor of political science at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, said data showing a population increase would make a good “talking point” for O?Malley.
“It?s nice to have the numbers moving in the right direction,” he said. “But it would have been nicer, symbolically, to say, ?After 50 years of decline, we have population growth in Baltimore.? ”
