Even without the Obama administration’s signature environmental regulation, the U.S. could meet its carbon emissions goals for the global climate agreement if natural gas use in the power sector continues to increase.
That’s the conclusion drawn by an analysis released Thursday by the American Petroleum Institute, the leading oil and gas industry group. Market forces currently shaping the power sector are causing an increase in natural gas use that is lowering carbon emissions without the Clean Power Plan, according to models presented by the oil group.
According to the analysis, the United States could reduce its carbon emissions 30 percent by 2030 below 2005 levels if current conditions were to continue. The U.S. has promised to decrease its carbon emissions between 26 and 28 percent in the Paris Agreement, the world’s first international climate change agreement.
“Natural gas generation in the power sector has driven significant CO2 emissions reductions, and we show that it will continue to drive significant emissions reductions,” said Amy Ferrell, senior director for market development at the lobbying group. Many scientists blame greenhouse gases from fossil fuels for driving manmade climate change.
The organization released a series of models Thursday promoting natural gas as a major part of the power sector’s future, regardless of whether the Clean Power Plan survives a legal challenge. The Clean Power Plan sets carbon emissions goals for each state and leaves it to them to determine how to reach those goals.
Many critics believe the regulation is an outright attack on the coal industry, which has traditionally powered much of the U.S. energy sector. However, the collapse in natural gas prices, along with the fact that it burns 50 percent cleaner than coal, has contributed as much to coal’s collapse in recent years as any Obama administration regulations.
The analysis did not take into account methane emissions from natural gas production and pipelines and what effect the administration’s regulations on the potent greenhouse gas could be. Methane, which is 25 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, is a target of the Obama administration’s regulations. The administration’s goal is to cut methane emissions from the oil and gas sector 40 to 45 percent by 2025.
As the Clean Power Plan faces a legal challenge, with the American Petroleum Institute among the regulation’s opponents, its future is uncertain and will almost certainly be decided in the future by the Supreme Court. But, even if the courts allow the regulation to go forward, the industry group wants states to consider natural gas to be a major part of their future energy plans.
The model presented by the group Thursday shows natural gas would make up the biggest proportion of American power generation in 2030 without the Clean Power Plan, accounting for 1,948 terawatt hours.
However, if the regulation survives, the most cost-efficient way to reduce carbon emissions would be to continue expanding the proportion of energy output from natural gas through natural market forces, according to the analysis.
Allowing the market to determine what kind of energy should be used, instead of mandating more energy efficiency or more renewable energy production, is the most cost-effective measure, the analysis said.
According to the analysis, any government-mandated increase in energy efficiency or renewable energy would require huge capital investments that would not be offset by savings in fuel costs.
“It’s just showing natural gas is providing those emissions reductions due to the Clean Power Plan,” said Erica Bowman, chief economist at API. “When you’re allowing market forces to solve, natural gas is the cheapest compliance option.”
