Even without the Obama administration’s signature environmental regulation, the U.S. could meet its carbon emissions goals for the global climate agreement if natural gas use in the power sector continues to increase.

That’s the conclusion drawn by an analysis released Thursday by the American Petroleum Institute, the leading oil and gas industry group. Market forces currently shaping the power sector are causing an increase in natural gas use that is lowering carbon emissions without the Clean Power Plan, according to models presented by the oil group.