Hillary Clinton was fastidiously preparing for a more restrained Donald Trump to show up in St. Louis, Mo., for the second presidential debate.
That’s what the Democratic nominee’s senior campaign advisers told reporters last week when they were asked which Trump — calm or kamikaze — they expected at Sunday’s televised town hall-style debate.
Then the presidential contest was turned upside down, and Trump’s already on-the-ropes candidacy was put under further strain, by the release of an 11-year-old video of him lewdly discussing his exploits with women.
Trump has tried to muddy the water by saying that what he was recorded saying is no worse than President Bill Clinton’s past marital infidelities, signaling that he’s likely to raise the issue in the debate in an attempt to corner Hillary Clinton.
Republican strategists tend to agree that taking that approach is a losing strategy that would only benefit Clinton. But despite the pressure being almost all on Trump, the former secretary of state has her own share of strategic challenges to consider.
The format of the debate, with the candidates walking a stage surrounded by undecided voters who will ask the majority of the questions, doesn’t lend itself to attack-dog style politics.
That means Clinton has to approach the matter more delicately than she might have in a formal opposing-podiums debate. She also has to be ready to make the most of Trump’s attacks on her marriage.
“I don’t think that Clinton needs to lean in on this; she should wait for it to come to her. There’s no need to dance on Trump’s grave, the Republican Party is already doing that,” Democratic communications strategist Rodell Mollineau said.
“Trump will likely do more damage trying to explain and deflect his comments than her explaining them,” he added. “But she would do well to remind the American public that this is a pattern of behavior, not an isolated incident.”
After a subpar first debate on Sept. 26, and trailing in most public opinion polls with a month to go, most of the pressure is on Trump to use this debate to resuscitate his campaign. That was the analysis before news of the lewd video broke on Friday in a story by the Washington Post.
Now, his path is even more perilous. Over the weekend, the Republican establishment uniformly condemned Trump, with dozens of elected Republican officials pulling their endorsements and urging him to withdraw from the race.
Although it’s unclear if Republican voters will follow suit, this development is sure to sting with female suburban moderates who are inclined to vote GOP but have been on the fence about Trump because of concerns about his temperament.
Whether Trump can salvage his candidacy could depend on how he answers questions about his comments on the video, in which he sounds as though he’s celebrating sexual assault and bragging about wooing married women.
“I was disappointed by Trump’s performance during and after the first debate. He winged it on both and lost,” said a Republican strategist who has supported him reluctantly because of his aversion to Clinton. “He needs to show more depth tonight.”
Trump’s latest scandal might give Clinton, a flawed candidate with ethical clouds of her own, some breathing room.
But the second debate still presents a test for the Democrat. She often performs her best when her back is against the wall; that was the case heading into the first debate as Trump had pulled near even with her in public opinion polls.
Where she has faltered at times in her career as candidate is in those moments where she has the wind at her back and is in a position to close out her opponent.
There’s a good chance Clinton will face more questions on Sunday about the private email server she used during her tenure at the State Department, about her family’s charitable foundation — and about the money she earned giving paid speeches after she left President Obama’s administration.
On Friday, there surfaced emails supposedly hacked from Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta that included transcripts of speeches Clinton delivered to foreign and domestic banking institutions.
The Clinton campaign has not authenticated the transcripts, but they appear to show Clinton taking private positions on some topics that are at odds with her public position. Theoretically, the discrepancy could cause her problems with the liberal base.
To the extent some of these issues arose in the first debate, Clinton deflected them adroitly and kept Trump on the defensive. How Clinton addresses all of these matters could set her up for victory on Nov. 8, or possibly provide Trump an opening to remain in contention.
“I think she still feels her back is against the wall,” said a Democratic operative who requested anonymity. “Her numbers are still not strong after a lopsided performance, and I think she is ready for a much more aggressive Donald.”
