Terry McAuliffe, after outraising, outspending and out-staffing his Democratic opponents, is poised to blanket Virginia with phone calls and door-knocks as the last hours of the gubernatorial primary approach.
Despite his efforts, polls still show the former Democratic National Committee chairman and Clinton fundraiser entering the finale of the campaign in a statistical dead heat with his lesser-known opponents, state Sen. Creigh Deeds and former Del. Brian Moran.
But McAuliffe’s financial edge could still prove decisive as he rolls out his get-out-the-vote effort.
“We’re going to have thousands of volunteers who are making hundreds of thousands of phone calls and knocking on tens of thousands of doors,” McAuliffe spokesman Lis Smith said.
McAuliffe has raised nearly $7 million for his campaign, more than Deeds’ and Moran’s combined totals, and ended May with $1.1 million still in the bank.
The money will aid him in the daunting challenge of mobilizing supporters for an off-year primary whose turnout is expected to hover around 5 percent.
Political observers expect that a higher turnout in Tuesday’s primary will signal a McAuliffe victory.
“Because McAuliffe is the one who has invested the most money, if there are a lot of people coming out, that will show what he’s doing affected turnout substantially,” said Fairfax County Democratic Committee Chairman Scott Surovell. “What usually suppresses turnout [is] a lot of people don’t know about a primary or they don’t know enough about it to feel like they can cast a vote. McAuliffe has had ads up there and had mailboxes full of mail for over a month.”
Much will depend, however, on which regions generate that turnout. Surovell said big numbers west of Route 29 — which bisects the state diagonally from Northern Virginia to Danville — will benefit Deeds, from rural Bath County. Turnout east of the highway, which includes Richmond and Hampton Roads, will boost McAuliffe. Moran, a former delegate from Alexandria, needs votes in the Washington suburbs.
For some watching the election, McAuliffe’s resources will serve as a test for the power of money in a primary.
“That’s the big question; what does this tremendous, unprecedented amount of money buy?” asked Bob Gibson, executive director of the University of Virginia’s Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership. “How do you translate big amounts of money into a small turnout, get-out-the-vote effort?”
McAuliffe’s 100-person staff is four times that of Deeds and about three times that of Moran. But Deeds spokeswoman Brooke Borkenhagen said the campaign “has always been able to do more with less.”
In the home stretch, she said the Deeds campaign was “going to spend a lot of time where we’re especially strong” — southwest and central Virginia, Southside and the Shenandoah valley.
The Moran campaign, which boasts a deep bench of local endorsements, is targeting Hampton Roads, Richmond, Roanoke and Northern Virginia, with Moran appearing with local leaders, hoping to undercut McAuliffe where he is strongest.
“We have a tremendous base of support,” Moran spokesman Jesse Ferguson said.
