Hillary Clinton carries a single-point lead over Donald Trump in Arizona, a reliably red state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996.
The former secretary of state edges Trump 46-45 percent in the Grand Canyon State, where 4 percent of likely voters intend to vote for Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, according to a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday.
Clinton carries a 30-point lead among non-white voters in Arizona, who comprise more than 20 percent of the state’s likely electorate. Meanwhile, Trump edges Clinton among white voters (+21 points), including white women (+3) and white college graduates (+2).
The same poll found Clinton carrying a double-digit lead among early voters in Arizona. Fifty-two percent of respondents who reported having already cast their ballots went for Clinton, compared to 42 percent who voted for Trump. Among those who are waiting until Nov. 8 to vote, Trump leads 49-41 percent.
“Clinton is banking on a significant advantage in Arizona’s early vote. Trump has to count on every other voter who says they are supporting him now to actually show up on Election Day,” Monmouth University polling director Patrick Murphy said in a statement.
In the Arizona Senate race, incumbent Republican Sen. John McCain looks poised to maintain his seat. McCain holds a 10-point lead over Democratic Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick (50-40 percent), though the two candidates are essentially tied in early voting.
The GOP senator beats Kirkpatrick among white men (65-26 percent) and white women (47-43 percent), but ties with his Democratic challenger among Hispanic voters. Despite McCain’s recent withdrawal of his support for Trump, 79 percent of the Republican presidential nominee’s backers still intend to vote for the Republican senator. Kirkpatrick draws 77 percent support among Clinton fans.
The Monmouth University survey of 401 likely voters in Arizona was conducted between Oct. 21-24, after Trump delivered his “closing argument” during a speech in Gettysburg, Pa., last Saturday. Results contain a margin of error plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
