The nonpartisan chairwoman of the Montana redistricting commission is confident the Democrats and Republicans on the panel will reach a consensus on the boundaries of the state’s two congressional districts.
Maylinn Smith said Friday during a brief telephone interview that disagreements have been minimal among the two Democrats and two Republicans on Montana’s independent Districting and Apportionment Commission. But that could change as the panel grapples with drawing two congressional districts after population growth earned the state a second representative in the House for the first time in three decades.
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Smith said she is committed to nudging both sides to reach an agreement and avoiding having to use her power to break stalemates. “My approach is to create consensus, so they end up making the decision,” Smith, an attorney and law professor, told the Washington Examiner. “I’m not wedded to anything. I want to do what’s best for Montana.”
After Montana reported population loss in the 1990 federal census, it lost one of its two congressional seats, with representation in the House shifting to an at-large, statewide district. Incumbent Democrat Pat Williams won those first two contests in 1992 and 1994. But he retired in the 1996 election cycle, and the seat has been controlled by the Republican Party ever since.
With the return of a second congressional seat, sparked by accelerated population growth, mostly in the western portion of the state, Democrats are optimistic a new district rooted in western Montana will favor Democratic candidates. That possibility is among the few bright spots for Democrats in decennial redistricting now underway across the country. Republicans are expected to net more seats in redistricting overall by the time voters head to the polls in November 2022.
Republicans will need to net about five seats in 2022 to recapture the House majority the party lost in 2018.
The new district covering eastern Montana is expected to favor Republicans any way the lines are drawn. However, Republicans are making no concessions about the forthcoming western Montana district, saying they prefer the clean, east-west divide that existed the last time the state had two House seats.
“Our hope is that they will adhere to the same criteria Montana has had in the past, which is to minimize deviations,” said Adam Kincaid, spokesman for the National Republican Redistricting Trust, the GOP group that oversees reapportionment for the party. “The one to the west should be more competitive and the one to the east more Republican. That makes more sense to me.”
Kincaid is worried the Montana commission could fail to agree on acceptable district maps, enabling Smith to break the tie in favor of the Democrats. Although nonpartisan, Smith was appointed by the Montana Supreme Court. The Democrats and Republicans on the panel were appointed by their party’s respective leaders in the state Legislature.
“As far as the commission itself, we do have some concerns. The chairperson seems to be liberally inclined,” Kincaid said. Smith rebuffed suggestions she would make decisions to benefit the Democratic Party.
Despite telling the Associated Press in April that east-west districts were less likely, given the distribution of Montana’s population now, versus 30 years ago, Smith told the Washington Examiner she is open to such an outcome and could see a scenario where the map is drawn that way.
“I definitely think we can end up with an east-west [boundary,”] Smith said. However, she cautioned that this approach might not be sufficient by the time all of the population data is analyzed. “There have been some shifts in population in Montana, in particular,” Smith explained. “There has been a lot more movement to the west, so it may make more sense to do some other configuration.”
Democrats have anxieties of their own over the redistricting process.
They worry the commission will not adequately account for the increased diversity of Montana’s population and that the panel might fall back on the traditional east-west divide when, in their view, that is not the way to produce a map that is the fairest and the most competitive.
According to Dave Wasserman, editor of House coverage for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, Democrats have plenty of reasons to worry.
The western Montana communities experiencing the most growth include Bozeman, Kalispell, and Missoula.
But in an east-west map reminiscent of what existed 30 years ago, Bozeman might fall in the eastern district. Yet, even with a district that included all three of those communities, plus Butte and Helena, the state capital, Democrats might only have an outside chance of winning. Such a hypothetical seat would have narrowly supported former President Donald Trump in 2020, according to Wasserman’s analysis.
“I still think chances of 2R-0D are greater than 1R-1D,” Wasserman tweeted back in June.
In order for Dems to be remotely competitive in a new #MT01, it would likely need to include all of Missoula, Bozeman, Butte, Helena and Great Falls (below) – and even then, such a seat would’ve narrowly voted for Trump. pic.twitter.com/YPGa1GdwWF
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 10, 2021
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The deadline for approval of the new congressional map is Nov. 14. The commission is scheduled to present proposed boundaries for public comment on Oct. 5, followed by two hearings where interested parties can make their case for adjustments.
