Pols familiar with Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison are unsurprised that he is gaining traction as a candidate to helm the Democratic National Committee, noting his progressive credentials, loyalty to the party, and the prospect that he could help to devise strategies for retaining the sort of progressive urban voters the party has become reliant upon.
“I’m intrigued by the thought of Rep. Ellison running the DNC,” said Thom Petersen, director of government relations for a Minnesota farmers’ group and a longtime Democratic activist. “I have known him since he was first elected to the Minnesota State House in 2002.
“His thing has always been voter turnout,” Petersen said. “He made it a top priority. He didn’t have to, because he has always had a safe seat. But he worked hard to help other campaigns by working to boost inner city and progressive turnout. ”
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Ellison in made history in 2006 as the first Muslim to win election to Congress, representing the bluest district in what has traditionally been one of the most reliably Democratic states. Minnesota last voted for a Republican president in 1972, the longest blue streak of any state in the nation.
The problem for Democrats, observers note, is that there are signs of trouble in days ahead. Donald Trump, now the president-elect, came closer to winning the state on Tuesday than any candidate since 1984, with 44.94 percent of the vote to 46.43 percent for Hillary Clinton. The only Republican who came closer was President Reagan, who lost the state by under a fifth of a percentage point to Walter Mondale, a former Minnesota senator.
Trump did perform better than Reagan on one key metric. He won 78 of the state’s 87 counties, bolstered by support from rural voters and residents of the state’s northeastern Iron Range, comprised largely of miners and steelworkers. Reagan, in contrast, won just 67 counties, eleven fewer than Trump.
“I’m not totally surprised by Trump almost winning Minnesota,” Petersen noted. “You could see he was resonating strong in rural Minnesota and the Iron Range. I think his opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership was a big deal. Throw in questions about Hillary’s past statements, emails, healthcare, and the desire for outside change, which Minnesota has gone for in the past by voting for Gov. Jesse Ventura, and bam!”
Should Trump continue to edge out Democrats on the issue of populist appeal, it is conceivable that Minnesota Democrats will become exclusively reliant on Ramsey County, representing the urban capital of St. Paul, and Hennepin County, the Minneapolis area represented by Ellison, to maintain their fortunes in the state.
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Ellison’s selection as DNC chairman could ensure the party retains an emphasis on keeping voters in urban centers both in Minnesota and around the country. Republicans argue the move will cost the party votes not only in the Midwest, but in regions including the Rust Belt, the South, and the Interior West.
“In 2018, nine of the Democratic senators who are up for re-election are in states Trump won. I don’t think Ellison helps them,” said John Gilmore, a Minnesota Republican activist and writer. “This reaches out to none of the Democrats who voted for Trump.”
“I can’t think of a Democrat who would be a worse choice than Anthony Weiner,” Gilmore said, referring to the disgraced former congressman from New York. “Democrats, and especially liberals, are already in coastal enclaves.”
It remains to be seen whether Ellison will seek the position successfully, though momentum is in his favor. New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, the anticipated incoming minority leader for Democrats in the Senate, announced his endorsement on Friday, and a petition organized by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who Ellison had supported for president over Clinton, garnered more than 250,000 signatures in Ellison’s support.
“He has a lot of passion,” Petersen noted. “Despite being one of Sen. Sanders’ most ardent supporters during the delegate process, he ultimately fell in line and worked hard on Hillary’s behalf, which you could say makes him a good party person.”
Ellison is expected to announce on Monday whether he will formally seek the position, which is up for election in January. Others in the running include former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander, and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who previously headed the DNC from 2005-09.
