Let’s say for the sake of argument that Rudy Giuliani’s supporters realize before they trundle off to the polls today that their hero’s chances are as dead as disco. If they decide to wake up and smell the coffee/vote strategically, who benefits – McCain or Romney? Scott Rasmussen provides the following analysis of Rudy’s support and how it compares with the contenders’ support:
Those figures would suggest a slight edge for McCain. All other things being equal, McCain should do roughly 10% better among Rudy supporters than Romney, which could be worth a point or two today. Given how close the polls are, a point or two could be significant. Bu then again, are all other things in fact equal? With Fred officially gone, Huckabee making a play only for some delegates in the south and the Giuliani campaign about to be mercifully euthanized, it’s now a two man race. That could concentrate the GOP’s mind, and make today’s primary and especially the ones that follow more a referendum on McCain than a competition between McCain and Romney. In a party composed mostly of conservatives, McCain would likely prefer the latter.
