Maryland is estimated to bring in $88.6 million more than expected to fill its coffers this fiscal year, the state Board of Revenue Estimates said Thursday.
Driving the gains — which would bring general fund revenues to $13.1 billion — are estimated increases in corporate and individual income tax revenues, as the federal government prepares to bring to Maryland tens of thousands of jobs and military families under the Base Realignment and Closure plan.
The board is estimating a 1.5 percent uptick in employment in fiscal 2011, said David Roose, executive secretary of the board.
“Because of BRAC, the forecast for employment is higher than otherwise,” he said, noting that BRAC will bring 21,000 jobs to Maryland before 2012.
The board’s report estimates modest 4.3 percent growth over 2010 revenues. But that percentage drops to roughly 2.5 percent when it accounts for a number of accounting maneuvers authorized last year to help ease budget cuts.
Looking ahead to fiscal 2012, the state is expecting to generate $13.6 billion in revenue, reflecting a weaker growth rate.
Comptroller Peter Franchot warned the new revenue and job growth do not indicate economic recovery.
“The numbers contained in this report are a reflection of an economy that continues to be defined by unemployment, underemployment, an anemic housing market and an understanding sense of consumer trepidation,” he said. “This would still be our seventh worst [revenue growth] in 40 years and it’s far below the 14 percent [growth] we would need to return to the revenue patterns that existed prior to the economic crisis.”
State lottery sales are expected to drop this year
for the first time in 14 years, Roose said. The state also is estimating smaller-than-expected growth in the sales and use tax as the slumping housing market drives down the sale of construction materials.
“Once again, the recovering housing market has been pushed off,” he said. “Homes sales are falling again after the expiration of the federal homebuyer’s credit and prices continue to fall, though at a much slower pace.”
Any increase in sales tax revenue is a positive sign, however, after four straight years of drops,
Roose said.
