Much is being made of the rejection of F-16 and F/A 18 jets by Indian Air Force, in what is said to be the “deal of the century” by many analysts and military-political commentators. The fact that this assessment is solely based on merit and quality is something many seemed to have forgotten. In a jingoistic article in Times of India, it was said that “massive US pressure” couldn’t tilt the deal in their favor.
The fact that the U.S. was deeply disappointed was again highlighted by Bloomberg News. I don’t guess the other two, Russian MiG 35 and Swedish Gripen, were delighted to lose the contact, but only the U.S. was mentioned.
Reuters made it a personal with the headline saying “India…spurns US,” where the reality is India also rejected Swedish and Russian fighters. Pravda similarly couldn’t get over from Russia’s shock and rejection.
The fact is that nothing among it is true that way. This decision was not personal or emotional at any respect. Here are the reasons why:
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One hundred twenty-six fighter jets is not a matter of joke. It is a huge decision, on which the whole structural modernization of the Indian Air Force depends. A good decision can tilt the balance of a whole region, and similarly a bad decision can choke the growth and military muscle-flexing of a growing regional and economic powerhouse. The phasing out of the old MiGs has already started, with the new Sukhois pouring in. Any decision would be crucial about the future, and would have been based on merit only.
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As it is perceived, neither Russia nor the U.S. is a winner or loser – in fact, in decisions like these, there are never any clear winners or losers. The U.S. took home the contract of delivering six C-130J Super Hercules, 12 F-81 Poseidons, 10 C-17 Globemaster-IIIs and lots of recon planes, with an over all deal of $8 billion. The Russians are already developing fifth generation stealth bombers in a secret project with India. So obviously, this was no friendly deal.
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The F-16s and the F/A 18s are both old planes, with known technology. Though they are still champions in their sectors, their digital signatures are known to Pakistan (thanks to President Obama) and, through Pakistan, even China knows. The maneuverability, the assessment, everything is known to everyone in the most heavily militarized and nuclear zone in the whole world. The procurement of them wouldn’t have been any strategic assets to the Indian deterrent. Similarly, the MiGs have a known problem in high altitude warfare, as proved by 1999 Kargil war where the most successful plane was the French Mirage, both for being a high tech high altitude bomber, as well as its secret codes. It was evidently logical to go European.
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Finally, the deal of $8 billions gave a huge boost to the military sector in U.S., pumping in much-needed money. The 126 fighters could have also given a bigger boost and more jobs, but the result is a little bit related to Obama’s policies too. If you remember correctly, George W. Bush, during his presidency, refused aid and F-16s to Pakistan. Obama, on the other hand, has poured in dollars and weapons. Now obviously, that was a short-sighted step. India is a bigger market which can in no way be comparable with Pakistan. India is democratic and the much-needed counterbalance to a militaristic, theocratic Pakistan and Communist China.
But Obama made the wrong choice. He obviously didn’t expect India to buy the same stuff he sells to Pakistan. And therein is the irony. He is selling U.S. technology to Pakistan, the same country which wants the U.S. out of Afghanistan and is lobbying openly for Chinese dominance and influence in the region. Obama has to make a decision, and fast, and choose which bet to place, and which side will be beneficial for the U.S. in the long run because time is really running short. And China is going to be the clear winner from Obama’s dithering and irrational politics.
