Donald Trump and Sen. Pat Toomey are two Republicans looking for a win in Pennsylvania this year, but that doesn’t mean they are working together.
In his battle with Democratic nominee Katie McGinty for a second Senate term, Toomey has not followed the lead of many Republicans and has instead withheld his support for Trump, refusing to say if he will even vote for him in November, let alone offering an endorsement.
“Like a majority of Americans, Pat is not thrilled by this year’s presidential choices. He has always made it clear that Hillary Clinton is a disaster,” spokesman Ted Kwong told the Washington Examiner. “He would like to see Donald Trump close the sale with uneasy voters, including himself.”
Noticeably, Toomey has made a concerted effort to court voters where Trump is weak, especially the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs. He has also concentrated the Lehigh Valley, which Toomey represented in Congress from 1999 to 2005. The Toomey campaign is aiming for split-ticket voters to emerge and push the Pennsylvania Republican over the top.
Why not get closer to Trump?
“I think he does start to jeopardize the potential of some split-ticket ballots this fall where those anti-Trump voters would be able to still support him while not supporting for the top of the ticket,” said Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College.
“I think there’s this belief in places like the Philly suburbs, there’s going to be a decent-sized population of voters who might be satisfied enough with Pat Toomey to cast a ballot for him while not voting for Trump. So if he goes all in for Trump, does he at that point alienate those voters to the the point where they say they’re a team, goodbye to Trump and goodbye to Toomey,” Borick explained. “That’s the one group where I think he’s most concerned about going all in with Trump. It’s really a catch-22 … because if Trump goes down and goes down big, no matter where he stands with Trump, Trump’s dragging him under.”
The suburban Philadelphia counties “collar” counties (Bucks, Delaware, Chester and Montgomery) have long been the state’s key swing vote, although it has turned into a more reliable vote for Democrats in recent years. In 2012, President Obama beat Mitt Romney by roughly 120,000 votes (674k-554k) there, which represented 22 percent of the state’s overall vote total.
Ticket splitting is relatively popular in Pennsylvania. The last three times a Republican Senate incumbent ran in a presidential year — Arlen Specter in 1992 and 2004, Rick Santorum in 2000 — each of them ran ahead of the party’s presidential nominee by at least 11 points. Toomey himself has had success in a presidential climate, winning his 2000 House contest by 6 points while Al Gore won the district by 2 points.
At the moment, Toomey trails McGinty by 1.2 points, according to the latest RealClearPolitics average, though he still runs well ahead of Trump. Hillary Clinton currently leads Trump by an 8-point margin.
While Toomey is increasingly focused on potential Clinton-Toomey voters, he faces some problems within his base. There are Second Amendment supporters disturbed by Toomey’s stance attempt at bipartisan legislation to expand background checks to gun shows and internet sales. He has also angered some hardcore Trump supporters with his decision to withhold his support. Trump won the state’s GOP presidential primary.
Additionally, some Republicans are privately concerned that Toomey hasn’t done everything he can to win this year, arguing that he hasn’t focused enough on retail politics and courting voters in more rural parts of the state, many of whom are likely to overwhelming support Trump.
Yet many Republicans remain optimistic about Toomey’s chances. State party chairman Rob Gleason told the Examiner that their tracking polls show Toomey leading as Trump trails Clinton by a few points, noting that he’s not worried about the state of the contest, arguing that Trump and Toomey will complement each other.
“He hasn’t been negative about Trump. He just said that Trump’s making his own way and I’m making my own way. I don’t see any problem with that,” Gleason said. “I see those two fellows complementing each other because I think that where Trump is strong that will be helpful to Toomey, and where Toomey is strong it will be helpful to Trump even though they aren’t ‘working for each other.'”
“I’m okay where we are,” Gleason added. “Pat’s doing fine. He doesn’t need Trump. I don’t think Trump needs him … They have to just keep moving ahead.”
