As the country inches closer to Election Day, voters are homing in on issues that may decide the fate of Congress and several state governments in November.
The Washington Examiner is tracking which issues are on the top of voters’ minds as they prepare to head to the polls, particularly in key battleground states that could bring a shift in power to the federal government. Specifically, we’re tracking how voters are researching our top five issues — abortion, crime, education, inflation, and taxes — and how these interests fluctuate as we get closer to Election Day.
MIDTERMS 2022: TRACKING THE ISSUES THAT MATTER TO VOTERS AHEAD OF ELECTION DAY
Below, you can track the interest in Utah for each of our key issues on a rolling 30-day basis. The Washington Examiner will be updating this page as interests and voting concerns change.
Key races we’re watching in the state
Despite being a Republican stronghold for decades, Utah has attracted some national attention for a handful of its midterm races.
Most notably, Democrats have turned their attention to the Utah Senate race as Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) seeks to fend off a challenge from independent candidate Evan McMullin in a race that is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in decades in the deep-red state.
McMullin won the backing of Utah Democrats after party leaders voted in April to nix their own candidate from the ballot to throw their support behind the independent, conceding Democrats have an uphill battle trying to unseat an incumbent Republican senator in Utah. The vote not to advance a candidate from their own party was a first-of-its-kind move aimed at shifting the balance of power in the state.
All four of Utah’s House seats are also up for grabs, although those races are unlikely to bring any unexpected outcomes. All four seats are currently held by Republicans who hold healthy leads in the polls and are expected to win their races against their Democratic challengers.
Education
Education proved to be at the top of voters’ minds over the last month, sitting at No. 1 for much of the month and experiencing a number of spikes near the end of September and the beginning of October, according to internet searches recorded and analyzed by Google Trends.
The issue grew in prominence over the last few months after the state passed a law banning transgender athletes from participating in female sports, prompting both praise and outrage from different corners of the state. Gov. Spencer Cox (R) vetoed the bill, but Republican lawmakers overrode his decision, allowing the bill to take effect in July.
A state judge later temporarily blocked the bill on Aug. 19 after three transgender girls filed a lawsuit. The injunction is set to stay in place until the suits are resolved by the state.
Taxes
Taxes emerged as a top issue among Utah voters after seeing varied interest over the last 30 days, coming in at No. 2 as of Oct. 17.
Internet searches related to taxes spiked three times on Sept. 30 as well as Oct. 4 and 10 in tandem with education searches, likely having to do with the announcement of President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan providing relief to up to 43 million borrowers. The forgiveness plan described parameters for who would be eligible for student loan cancellation, noting borrowers will need to earn under $125,000 individually or $250,000 as a household.
Student loan forgiveness is seemingly unpopular among Utah voters, with only 11% saying all federal loans should be forgiven compared to 46% who said the federal government should not cancel any loans, according to a recent Dan Jones & Associates poll conducted for Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute of Politics.
Crime
Crime held steady as one of the top issues among Utah voters in September, alternating as No. 2 and No. 3 throughout the month.
Crime has also emerged as a top voter priority nationwide, with 60% of voters saying violent crime is a “very important” issue, ranking behind only the economy and gun policy, which are not included in the Washington Examiner’s analysis.
Republicans have sought to paint Democrats as too “soft on crime” throughout the midterm cycle, and the GOP may have an advantage because it is typically considered better at handling crime, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll from April. That is a shift from previous sentiments that both parties are capable of handling crime.
Inflation
Inflation remained one of the lowest-searched topics over the last month, receiving a spike in interest on Oct. 13 and 16 before falling back to No. 4.
The spike in interest on Oct. 13 is likely due to the latest report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that was released on that day, the final report before Election Day. Inflation clocked in at 8.2% for the 12 months ending in September — higher than expected and defying the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes.
Stocks immediately took a hit after the report was released. Futures of the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down some 500 points just minutes after the report’s release. The S&P 500 was off by about 2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq plunged nearly 3%.
Inflation emerged as a top concern among Utah voters as rates continued to rise over the last few months, with 96% of Utah voters saying they are either very or somewhat worried about inflation and just 4% saying they are not concerned, according to a September poll by Dan Jones & Associates.
The issue has also taken center stage in the Utah Senate race, with Lee opposing the passage of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and arguing it won’t reduce inflation. Meanwhile, McMullin has proposed his own seven-point plan to curb growing inflation rates, with much of his policies mirroring those passed in the Inflation Reduction Act.
Abortion
Abortion remained a low-researched topic throughout the month of October, coming in at No. 5 as of Oct. 17. Internet searches related to abortion did have a rare spike on Oct. 9, likely due to comments from Rep. John Curtis (R-UT), who identifies as “unapologetically pro-life,” telling voters he wished “women could make this decision” regarding access to the procedure.
The Republican incumbent later clarified that he believes the decision should be left up to the states, which was established after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade earlier this summer. However, Curtis lamented that meant most of the laws would be decided by men.
“Now, look, I get it. If you’re a woman, it stinks that most of these legislatures are men, most of these decisions are made by men,” Curtis said. “I wish it were other than that. That being said, it falls on state legislatures to thoughtfully decide in their state what they want to do.”
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The issue of abortion has also emerged as a focal point of the Utah Senate race, with Lee and McMullin both being outspoken on the issue despite holding similar views. For example, Lee praised the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which ended nationwide access to abortion, while McMullin expressed opposition to the decision.
The Republican incumbent has campaigned on policies that seek to ban abortion after 20 weeks, with some exceptions for rape, incest against a minor, and harm to the mother’s life. McMullin says he does not support total bans on abortion but stops short of giving a full answer on when he believes the procedure should be restricted.
