NEW YORK (AP) — After wrapping up a decent back-to-school shopping season, merchants are expected to see healthy sales gains for the critical winter holidays, though the pace should be slightly below last year, according to one of the first forecasts issued for the holiday sales season.

Retail revenue in November and December should be up 3.3 percent during what’s traditionally the biggest shopping period of the year, Chicago-based research firm ShopperTrak said Wednesday.