Poll Offers Brutal News for Obama, Democrats

Overall, Obama’s job approval is unchanged, which might be called good news for the president, except that it remains at a low in this poll for the administration. Forty percent approve versus 54 percent who disapprove. This puts the poll toward the low end of the approval scale, but the NBC/WSJ poll is of registered voters, which probably makes it mildly less disposed to the president.

Obama’s approval numbers on the economy are statistically unchanged from last month, although there is an improvement since December, when it was 39-58. Today it is 43-53. This number is interesting to me because people have been talking up the growing economy, but it does not seem to be translating into politics. I’d note with interest that Gallup’s measure of economic confidence has been flat for six months. The economy has been growing at a pretty consistent 2 percent since it emerged from the recession in the spring of 2009. That rate appears not to be enough to provide a political boost to the president.

The president is taking a pummeling in foreign affairs. Six months ago his approval rating was 41/53. Now it is 32/62. That tells me he has lost not only Republicans and independents, but also maybe a quarter of Democrats. NBC/WSJ does not break the approval numbers down by party identification, but my guess is that Democrats approve of the president much more strongly on the economy than foreign policy. Hence, the decline. Independent swing voters, who determine the outcome of every election, probably disapprove on both fronts. The ABC News/Washington Post poll found basically something similar. Obama’s job approval on the economy was better than international affairs, mostly because Democrats are with him more on the economy.

Obama’s favorable rating is also near record lows. Just 42 percent of registered voters have a favorable view of him, compared to 46 percent with an unfavorable view. Last month, it was 40/47, but a year ago it was 45/42. NBC/WSJ’s pre-election poll in 2012 had it at 49/43. It has often been said that Obama’s greatest asset is that people like him in general. That is not really the case anymore. His net favorable rating has been negative in NBC/WSJ since last October.

Following up on my post from yesterday, the Republican party’s favorable rating is an anemic 31 percent, compared to a unfavorable rating of 41 percent. That is better than other polls have it, perhaps because NBC/WSJ offers a “neutral” option, which clocks in at 26 percent. Democratic favorability is 36/42, just slightly better.

Regarding the midterms, registered voters prefer a Republican Congress over a Democratic one, 45-43. That is basically unchanged from a month ago. And it is the essentially the same as NBC/WSJ found in September 2010 when the public was evenly split. At this point in 2012, registered voters preferred Democrats, 47-43. At this point in 2008 they wanted Democrats in control of Congress, 50-37. At this point in 2006, it was 52-37 in favor of Democrats.

Breaking it down by issues, we can see why Republicans are in better shape. They are more trusted on the more salient issues. Democrats have a net advantage of 28 points on who is better “looking out for the interests of women,” where 45 percent say Democrats and 17 percent say Republicans. They have a 27 point advantage on the environment, and a 15 point edge on abortion. On health care, they have an 8 point edge, which is close to their lowest advantage since 1991. But that is it for Democrats. On taxes (R+4), immigration (R+7), economy (R+10), foreign policy (R+18), the deficit (R+18) and a strong national defense (R+38), the GOP has the edge. Moreover, this advantage has either stayed the same or expanded in the last month. And on every one of these metric the party is improved from a year ago, often substantially so.

The immigration item is of most interest to me. Democrats are not dummies. There was a good reason they did not pass a comprehensive reform bill when they had complete control of government back in 2009-2010. The reality is that wide swaths of any such bill are bound to be unpopular. Once you satisfy the “stakeholders” (Obamaspeak for: interest groups that have purchased undue access to policymakers), you wind up with a rotten piece of sausage that John Q. Public does not want to eat. This is why Democrats need Republicans — as cover on the issue. They thought they had it a year ago, and when it looked like the GOP might give in, the public favored Democrats on immigration by four points last September, 30-26. But Republicans like Jeff Sessions have been arguing passionately and effectively about how it is a bad deal for the working class (regardless of race or ethnicity), and lo and behold the issue has flipped from a year ago, to a 35-28 advantage for the GOP.

The final bit of bad news for Democrats: Hillary Clinton’s favorable ratings are quite poor. They clock in at just 43/41. A year ago she was at 51/31, which makes for quite a slide. I’d be interested to see the partisan breakdown on this. Perhaps the decline is due to the fact that she’s now again being seen more as a Democrat than a diplomat. My guess is that she’s lost a lot of support from Republicans and Republican leaners. Of course, Clinton is supposed to be the one candidate who can float above the lousy reputation of her party. Looking at her fairly precipitous drop over the last year, perhaps not.

All in all, this is precisely the sort of poll you do not want to see if you are a Democrat. With less than two months until the 2014 midterm, Republicans are polling stronger in the NBC/WSJ poll than at any point since … two months before the 2010 midterm.

Jay Cost is a staff writer for The Weekly Standard. His new book, A Republic No More: Big Government and the Rise of American Political Corruption, will be published by Encounter Books in Spring, 2015.