Frank Newport, Gallup’s head of polling, includes two items about religion and politics in his list of “Five Things You May Not Know About the Presidential Election.” The first emphasizes the enduring importance of the Catholic vote in winning the White House. In the most recent Gallup poll, 47 percent of Catholic voters favor Obama while, 43 percent favor McCain. This denomination is traditionally up for grabs. George W. Bush won the Catholic vote in 2004 (52%-47%), but lost it to Al Gore in 2000 (47%-50%). Catholics are a key target group for both campaigns. And Obama’s recent equivocations on late-term abortion is an acknowledgment of Catholic political power. McCain and Republicans generally do better among those who say religion is important in their lives in virtually every denomination. In other words, as the importance of religion grows, so does support for McCain. The two exceptions are Hispanic Catholics and black non-Catholic Christians, who back Obama overwhelmingly irrespective of the importance of religion in their lives Jewish voters comprise another interesting group. Although much smaller than Catholics and Protestants, this group has traditionally been a Democratic stronghold. And while they still support Obama by about a two to one margin, McCain today draws a higher percentage of the Jewish vote than did Bush in 2000 and 2004. The most recent Gallup poll has McCain trailing 29 percent to 62 percent among Jews. But with the support of nearly one out of three Jewish voters, McCain already outpolls George W. Bush’s performance in 2000 (19 percent) and 2004 (25 percent), according to exit polls. And consistent with the pattern noted above, Obama and McCain are about even among the four out of six Jews who say religion is important in their lives.
