The Republican electoral wave building across the United States is bypassing New York, as fresh public opinion polls show Gov. Kathy Hochul with a commanding lead over Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY).
In an Emerson College survey from July 26–28, Hochul led Zeldin 51% to 35%, with 7% undecided and 7% planning to support a third-party candidate. In a Siena College poll in the field from July 24–28, the governor led her Republican challenger 53% to 39%. In both surveys, a majority of New York voters were unhappy with the direction of the country. But Democrats running for statewide office are not bearing the brunt of this disappointment.
That is due to the Democratic Party’s dominance in New York, which in turn is fueled by its strong, partisan advantage in New York City. But there are other factors. For instance, Hochul’s advantage with female voters.
“Hochul has a clear base of women voters in New York,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement. “The governor holds a 3-point lead over Zeldin among male voters, 46% to 43%, but that lead expands to 29 points among women voters, 55% to 26%.”
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Zeldin, who represents a district on Long Island, has faced an uphill climb in this race from the beginning. That does not appear to have changed following a campaign event where he was attacked by an male assailant wielding a knife. Zeldin ultimately escaped the incident unscathed after his attacker was quickly subdued. However, the congressman polls much better in upstate New York, and in various suburbs, than he does in the five boroughs.
“Hochul dominates in New York City, leading by nearly 50 points, while Zeldin has slim 3-point leads both upstate and in the downstate suburbs,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement. “Independents narrowly tilt toward Zeldin, 44-42%.”
These results, plus the nearly 100 days left to campaign before the Nov. 8 midterm elections, suggest Zeldin’s candidacy cannot be completely dismissed, especially with a favorable national political environment for the GOP. The pollsters for Emerson and Siena said as much in their analysis.
However, the broad findings of both surveys indicate that the New York governor’s race is Hochul’s to lose. The Emerson poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points; the error margin in the Siena poll was 3.5 points. Among the data:
- In the Emerson poll, Hochul enjoys a 53% job approval rating, on par with President Joe Biden’s 52% job approval rating.
- In the Emerson poll, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) leads Republican challenger Joe Pinion 53% to 31%.
- In the Emerson poll, 51% of voters said the United States was on the wrong track, 39% said the country was on the right track, and 10% were undecided.
- In the Siena poll, 68% opposed the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade and eliminated federal protections for abortion rights.
- In the Siena poll, voters favor Democratic control of the House, an advantage that comes from the party’s advantage among voters in the state overall. Per the survey, 85% of Democrats want their party to maintain control of the House, 85% of Republicans favor their party, while independents favor the GOP by 2 points.
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This is Hochul’s first run for governor. She was the lieutenant governor when she ascended to the top job to take over for Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat in his third term who resigned to avoid an impeachment inquiry in the New York legislature amid sexual misconduct allegations.
