NASHUA, N.H. — As voters go to the polls in Tuesday’s primary here, the key is not just how candidates perform, but how they perform relative to expectations.
Mitt Romney, who served as governor of neighboring Massachusetts and campaigned for president here in 2008, is seen as the prohibitive favorite to win the state.
“He’s been the front-runner for so long in New Hampshire, I mean, since 2009, and he’s got the most money and best organization, and he’s been really expected to win by voters here,” said University of New Hampshire pollster Andrew Smith.
Smith said that if Romney gets over 40 percent of the vote in a multi-candidate field it should be considered an impressive win, whereas 35 percent would be an average victory and a showing in the low 30s would be weak, especially if it meant only beating the second place candidate by 10 points or less.
The last UNH poll before the primary had Romney at 41 percent with a 24-point lead over Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, who was at 17 percent.
Jon Huntsman, the former governor of Utah, skipped the Iowa caucuses to focus on the Granite State. It would be hard to justify continuing if he doesn’t at least finish second here. But even a second-place showing, given that the bulk of his support comes from Democratic-leaning independents who are allowed to vote in the state’s Republican primary, would be hard to replicate in primaries that only allow Republicans to participate.
Once a contender, Newt Gingrich’s collapse into fourth place in Iowa crippled his candidacy. An unlikely second-place showing could revive him, but anything below that could lead to calls for him to drop out of the race.
In what would be an utter embarrassment, some polls suggest that one-time national front-runner Texas Gov. Rick Perry, stuck in the low single digits, could lose to former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer, who wasn’t even included in any presidential debates. It would be a blow to Perry’s efforts to make a last stand in South Carolina.
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has campaigned in New Hampshire since surging to a virtual tie for first place in Iowa. His goal is to prove he can do well outside of a staunch socially conservative electorate. Though a surprise second-place finish here would provide a big boost to Santorum, current polling suggests he could drop to fourth or even fifth — which would take a lot of wind out of his sails.
“That really would hurt him in South Carolina,” Smith said. “If you lose, and finish in fourth place, you’re a loser. And Republicans in the rest of the country want a winner.”
