Trump sticks to his message

Trump’s keynote concluded a four-day convention marred by dissension among the delegates and intraparty strife that he and his campaign were instrumental in stoking — between the real estate mogul’s populist wing of the GOP, and traditional Republicans still resistant to his nomination.

The nominee, 70, exits Cleveland for points unknown.

That’s partly because Trump’s best path to victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton remains uncertain, and because, as is typical for his seat-of-the-pants operation, no guidance was given for where he would campaign in the days ahead.

By contrast, the Clinton campaign has already announced plans for a campaign rally in Philadelphia the day after she accepts the nomination there one week from today.

But Trump was crystal clear about the campaign message that he would carry to voters between now and Election Day in November. It’s not all that different from the populist style, rhetoric and policies that he relied on to come out on top in a crowded and competitive Republican primary.

Trump’s offering a strong, tough talking leader who will crack down on illegal immigration, protect Americans from domestic terrorism and restore economic growth to forgotten communities by cutting taxes, curbing regulations and renegotiating trade deals.

“Nobody knows the system better than me, which is why I alone can fix it,” Trump said, to a packed Quicken Loans Arena. “Americanism, not globalism, will be our credo. As long as we are led by politicians who will not put America First, then we are assured that other nations will not treat America with respect.”

As the Republican convention closed, and the Democratic confab prepared to open, Clinton, 69, narrowly led Trump in public opinion polling averages, 44 percent to 41.3 percent. The former secretary of state held a similar advantage in most battleground states. Both candidates are deeply unpopular; Trump is particularly lacking among members of the political party he now leads.

To resuscitate his numbers and undercut Clinton, Trump plans to focusing on working class voters. The candidate will pitch them on a message calls for reducing immigration — legal and illegal — and re-negotiating trade deals to create jobs and raise wages.

Trump argued in the primary that immigrants are stealing Americans’ jobs because they’re willing to work for less, and that bad trade deals are making it possible for U.S. firms to relocate overseas and take advantage of cheap labor.

The reality television star is sticking with that program in the general.

Stephen Moore, an economist who is advising Trump on economic policy, said that Trump’s economic agenda would include tax cuts, budget cuts, regulatory reform and loosening the reins on energy exploration, all staples of GOP policy.

But Moore said that combining those proposals with restrictions on immigration and trade protectionism would allow Trump to “hammer” Clinton on abandoning the middle class and flip the script on the Democrats, who have recently had more success in wooing those voters.

“It’s going to be completely oriented toward working class people,” Stephen Moore, an economist who is advising Trump on fiscal policy, said of the nominee’s economic agenda. “That’s where he wins Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New York. It’ll be not an orthodox Republican position.”

More than 9 million jobs have been created since President Obama took office; the unemployment rate was a low, 4.9 percent in June. But the economic recovery from the 2008 financial crash has been uneven and plodding, averaging about 2 percent annually.

Trump is targeting all of the typical battleground states usually decide presidential elections, and that’s where he’s likely to spend the majority of his time on the ground. They include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

With some states like Colorado, Virginia and possibly Florida and North Carolina, looking bluer this year than previously, Trump’s only path to victory might be through Pennsylvania and the Midwest. Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, Trump’s running mate, could be a crucial part of enhancing the nominee’s already considerable Rust Belt appeal.

Trump also insists that he can put California and New York in play, although there’s absolutely no empirical evidence to suggest that that either state is competitive for Republicans.

“If he’s conventional, he’ll be in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and other ‘must have’ states for a Republican candidate,” GOP strategist Jim Dornan said. “But he’s done nothing conventionally, or the way the experts say he should, and it’s worked for him, so who know where he’ll be?”

Trump has the benefit of running against Clinton, a flawed candidate hampered by the scandal surrounding her use of a private email server while she ran the State Department. The Democratic convention to nominate Clinton begins on Monday.

Among Trump’s biggest challenges over the next three-and-half months might be keeping himself in check.

His nomination acceptance speech was coherent and thematic. But Trump lives for his large, raucous campaign rallies, where he speaks provocatively and off the cuff. These events have defined Trump’s candidacy, and caused him trouble.

It was at one of these rallies that Trump first used racially charged rhetoric to attack a federal judge. It’s at these rallies where he tends to ignore Clinton in favor of reprising the criticism of all of the Republicans he beat in the primary.

“His challenge is to make the race about her and to be disciplined to not provide the shiny objects that keep her out of the news,” Republican strategist Brad Todd said. “Voters don’t want her to be president. That’s the question he wants in their minds in the booth.”