The Cook Political Report on Wednesday changed its classification for Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District race from “lean Democrat” to “pure toss-up,” explaining that Republicans could win the seat for just the second time in 40 years because of Donald Trump’s popularity.
Republican Stewart Mills is running for the second time against Democratic incumbent Rep. Rick Nolan to represent the state’s rural northern district, which is on the Canadian border. Nolan won the seat with 48.5 percent of the vote in 2014 over 47.1 percent for Mills.
“This rematch looks like it’s headed for another photo finish,” said Cook Political Report editor David Wasserman. “Both parties agree that Trump is ahead in this traditional Democratic and labor stronghold. If Trump runs up the score here, Mills could be a beneficiary.”
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The district has voted a Republican into Congress just once since 1974, when former Republican Rep. Chip Cravaack defeated former Democratic Rep. Jim Oberstar in 2012. Oberstar died in 2014, the same year Nolan won the seat back for his party.
Poll results released last week by SurveyUSA found Mills leading Nolan by 4 points, and Trump leading Hillary Clinton in the district by 12 points. The district, composed largely of miners and steelworkers, has traditionally represented a core constituency for Minnesota Democrats, and played a key role in contributing to statewide victories for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 1976.
The congressional race is the second indicator Democrats could be struggling as a result of Trump’s popularity in the region. Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon announced on Tuesday that Trump had edged Clinton out in a mock election held among state high school students, taking 34.97 percent of the vote to 32.89 percent for Clinton.
