Donald Trump holds a single-point lead over Hillary Clinton in a new national poll by Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which has earned praise for its track record of accuracy in the last three presidential election cycles.
In a four-way matchup between Trump, Clinton, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, the Republican presidential nominee draws 41.3 percent support to Clinton’s 40 percent, putting her within the poll’s 3.6 percent margin of error. Johnson carries 7.6 percent support and Stein draws 5.5 percent.
In a two-way race, Clinton leads her Republican opponent by 3 percentage points.
The former secretary of state carries a 4-point lead among voters ages 18 to 44, while Trump has an 8-point advantage among those ages 45-64. The two major party candidates are virtually tied among voters 65 and older.
Much like other national polls released throughout the general election, Clinton holds a strong lead among female voters (47 percent to 37 percent), while Trump maintains an edge among men (47 percent to 32 percent). The former secretary of state also enjoys a significant advantage among black and Hispanic voters, but trails Trump by 16 percentage points among white voters.
Trump also leads Clinton 44 percent to 29 percent among independent voters nationwide, with Johnson drawing 10 percent support, and a greater percentage of his backers (67 percent) describe themselves as “strongly” supportive of him as a candidate than do Clinton’s (58 percent).
The IBD/TIPP poll has been ranked the “most accurate” tracking survey in the three most recent presidential elections and was the awarded the same title by veteran pollster Nate Silver in his assessment of 23 polls following the 2012 election.
In 2004, 2008 and 2012, IBD/TIPP’s average prediction for the final vote margin between both major party presidential candidates deviated from the actual outcome by 0.9 percentage points.
Most other national polls have shown Clinton ahead.
The latest poll of 788 likely voters across the country was conducted from Oct. 13-18, after the second presidential debate and the release of an audio tape in which Trump was caught making lewd comments about women.
