A major expansion of the war in Ukraine is unlikely — at least “for the next two weeks,” according to the top Ukrainian diplomat.
“Russia for the next two weeks is likely to remain on the diplomatic track,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Thursday in Copenhagen, Denmark. “We understand that a military operation is something they keep in the pocket, it’s not something they put ahead of other options.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has mobilized more than 100,000 troops around Ukrainian borders, raising widespread fears that a new offensive could come soon. Yet Russian officials have implied on multiple occasions that this show of force represents an effort to gain leverage in so-called Normandy Format negotiations over the resolution of the preexisting war in Ukraine, which the Kremlin hopes will produce a regional government more loyal to Moscow than the central government in Kyiv.
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“The crucial thing is to make sure that the Minsk agreements are implemented,” said Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev, who held the title of Russian president during the four years between Putin’s first and second stint in that office.
“This is where the main issue lies because verbally, everyone expresses commitment to these accords. Even the Ukrainians are talking about it, but they aren’t doing anything,” Medvedev said.
Normandy Format officials met in Paris on Wednesday to discuss a potential revival of the dialogue, the same day U.S. and NATO officials provided the written response to Russia’s broader ultimatum for NATO.
“They reaffirm that the Minsk agreements are the basis of the work of the Normandy Format and are committed to reduce current disagreements on the way forward,” the four countries said after the Wednesday meeting. “They support unconditional observance of the ceasefire and full adherence to the measures to strengthen the ceasefire of 22 July 2020 regardless of differences on other issues of the implementation of the Minsk agreements.”
The Minsk agreements have loomed over most discussions of a diplomatic resolution since 2015, when the Normandy Format — a four-nation bloc that includes France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia — met in the capital of Belarus to negotiate the second of the two agreements, which are named for the city where they were negotiated. That agreement sets the stage for Donbas, the region currently controlled by Russia, to be granted semi-autonomy following local elections, but Ukrainian officials are unwilling to schedule the elections while Russian forces control the territory.
“The Ukrainians are not going to agree to that because that will mean that there are no free and fair elections, and that will be controlled by Russia,” former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor told the Washington Examiner. “The Ukrainians are not going to abide by that.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov implied last month that Russia is trying to induce France and Germany to break Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s will — “Berlin and Paris are neglecting their obligations. We are trying to attract their attention to the importance of doing this,” he said — and he reiterated that demand this week.
“We support the unconditional implementation of the Minsk agreements, which Ukraine is currently sabotaging,” Lavrov said Wednesday. “I believe this obligation lies with the West, which must ensure that Kyiv honors the Minsk agreements. Then, there will be no more questions. I really hope that this is how things will turn out.”
Kuleba surmised that Lavrov’s desire to win in the Normandy Format means that Russia will not expand the conflict before the quartet meets again in Berlin.
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“Nothing has changed — this is the bad news,” he said Thursday. “The good news is that advisers agreed to meet in Berlin in two weeks, which means that Russia for the next two weeks is likely to remain on the diplomatic track.”
