Simply put, Carper’s acknowledgment means that Reid’s bill cannot pass the Senate in its current incarnation. The Democrats’ hope, it appears, is that a “trigger” public option would capture Snowe’s vote even as it loses Lieberman’s. But there are several other senators to consider, too: Nebraska’s Ben Nelson, Louisiana’s Mary Landrieu, and Arkansas’s Blanche Lincoln. They could find other reasons to oppose the bill. In a recent op-ed, for example, Nelson wrote that “I would vote against a cloture motion – needing 60 votes – to move to approve the Reid bill today for a number of reasons, and I will do so if that’s what emerges from the upcoming debate. I also will vote no on a cloture motion – also needing 60 votes – to move to an up-or-down vote on a final House-Senate compromise health care bill if serious problems remain.” So far as I know, Nelson hasn’t given any indication that the “serious problems” have disappeared. All of which is to say: Even if Reid surmounts the public option hurdle, he still has to jump over plenty more. Medicare cuts, for example.
