A high-turnout election could hand Florida to former Vice President Joe Biden, according to a new poll from Monmouth University.
The survey found that an election that sees a historically high number of voters gives Biden, the Democratic nominee, a significant advantage over President Trump in the Sunshine State. According to Monmouth’s model, a high-turnout election gives Biden 50% support among likely voters compared with Trump’s 45%. Those numbers are identical to who all registered voters support in Florida as well.
Under a low-turnout model, the race narrows slightly, with Biden earning 49% support compared with Trump’s 46%.
“Biden’s current lead among Latinos is similar to Clinton’s margin four years ago. One difference, though, is how Florida’s Latino electorate has shifted since 2016. There has been an influx of residents from Puerto Rico and a growing number of young voters. These groups tend to be more Democratic, which actually suggests that Trump could be doing slightly better among older Latino voters than he did four years ago,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
A RealClearPolitics average of polls has Biden narrowly leading by 1.6 points with 48.7% support. In 2016, Trump won the state with 49.02% of the vote compared with Hillary Clinton’s 47.82%.
Winning Florida would effectively checkmate Trump in his bid to win 270 Electoral College votes, the amount needed for another term. Florida’s 29 electoral votes would give Biden a huge advantage, along with states he’s targeting that Trump won in 2016, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
