The New Hampshire primary failed to winnow the field of conservative Republican presidential hopefuls, leaving in place a pack of candidates poised to split the support of the party’s right wing in the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary and pave the way for the more moderate Mitt Romney to glide to a third victory.
“When you have a second tier of candidates that is fairly muddled and there is not much consensus about them, I think it’s going to be an uphill climb for any kind of unified effort that might slow Romney now,” South Carolina Republican political strategist Chip Felkel told The Washington Examiner.
Romney’s double-digit win in the Granite State on Tuesday — following his victory in Iowa a week earlier — made him the first Republican candidate since 1976 to win the first two presidential nominating contests. With Republican sights turning now to South Carolina and then Florida at the end of the month, Romney is starting to be viewed as the party’s inevitable nominee.
But Romney’s rivals, each of whom portrays himself as the conservative alternative to the front-runner, are buying television and radio ad time in South Carolina to criticize Romney as too moderate to offer the kind of contrast voters are looking for against President Obama in the fall.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is leading the attack, assailing Romney’s leadership at Bain Capital, an investment company, as “crony capitalism” that cost some Americans their jobs. Texas Gov. Rick Perry has joined that fight, depicting Romney as a circling “vulture” who swooped in, pillaged companies and fired employees.
Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania popular with evangelical Christians, also is campaigning in South Carolina as a conservative alternative to Romney, though he refuses to attack Romney’s work in the private sector.
Gingrich, Santorum and Perry all fared poorly in secular New Hampshire, but expect to do much better among South Carolina’s conservative, evangelical voters. But voters are so divided among the three that none has been able to win enough support to seriously challenge Romney.
The stakes in South Carolina are high for the trio. Gingrich said he may quit the race if he doesn’t win. Santorum and Perry could also find it difficult to hang on financially if they lose a third contest to Romney.
Gingrich didn’t waste any time rallying conservatives Wednesday, firing off an email headlined, “Do you want to stop Mitt Romney or not?”
If none of the three can stop Romney, it’s unlikely the field’s two other surviving candidates will, either.
Rep. Ron Paul, the libertarian-leaning candidate who finished second to Romney in New Hampshire, told supporters he believes he can cut further into Romney’s support. But Paul’s calls to drastically reduce the military and withdraw from the world are making it difficult for him to expand his support among Republicans.
Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who placed third in New Hampshire with 17 percent, will also compete in South Carolina, but he is more moderate and more likely to cut into the Romney vote.
Unless Perry, Gingrich or Santorum can break through in South Carolina, the race is Romney’s to lose, Clemson University political science professor J. David Woodard said.
“This is a red state,” Woodard said. “If Romney wins here, game, set, match. It’s over.”
