Recently released census data confirms demographic shifts in Virginia over the last decade that make the gubernatorial race and other offices up for grabs this year a challenge for Republicans and explain some of the dynamics in 2021’s marquee governor’s race.
Glenn Youngkin, a first-time candidate and former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group private equity firm, is the Republican nominee running against former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who is seeking a second nonconsecutive term. The off-year election this November is often viewed as a barometer for the mood of the country before midterm elections.
Republicans have not won a statewide race in Virginia since 2009, when former Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell won with a decisive 59% of the vote.
Since then, demographic changes have resulted in increased racial diversity and an increase in the nonwhite population that tends to vote Democratic; population loss in rural, Republican-leaning areas; and population increase in suburbs and population centers.
NUMBER OF WHITE PEOPLE DECLINES FOR FIRST TIME — AND OTHER CENSUS DATA TAKEAWAYS
The fastest-growing county was Loudoun in Northern Virginia, a wealthy suburb of Washington, D.C., which saw 34.8% growth from 2010 to 2020 — more than quadruple the pace of the statewide 7.9% growth rate. President Joe Biden won the county with 61% of the vote in 2020.
Population loss was most dramatic in the southwestern tip of the state, bordering Kentucky and West Virginia. That area also has high percentages of white voters compared to the rest of the state and fewer children.
In the past, Virginia Commonwealth University political science professor Alex Keena said, “Suburbs were really the area where both parties tried to win elections, where all the campaigning was.” Now that the counties surrounding Washington, D.C., have trended more Democratic, “it is places like Loudoun County where Republicans hope that they can make up some support.”
When it comes to the race makeup of the population from 2010 to 2020, Virginia saw an 8% decline in the white population to 60.3%, a slight decline of the black population from 19.4% to 18.6%, an increase in the Asian population from 5.5% to 7.1%, and an increase in multiracial people from 2.9% to 8.2%. Those who identified as Hispanic or Latino, an ethnic group classified as being part of any race, increased from 7.9% to 10.5%.
Some political effects of the gradual demographic change over the last decade were reflected in previous elections.
“The numbers just reflect what’s already been happening in the state,” said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “The political shifts in the state have been benefiting Democrats, as they have gained in the growing suburban places while Republicans have gained in the sparsely populated rural parts of the state. This is something the census figures help confirm, but this has already been clear from the state’s recent voting patterns.”
McAuliffe squeaked out a 3-point win in 2013 with 48% of the vote, and then in 2017, Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam won by 9 points with 54%.
The latest polls show Youngkin just 5% behind McAuliffe. Some coalitions and initiatives started by Youngkin’s campaign target racial groups that have increased over the last decade: Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders, Latinos, and black Virginians.
That could prove to help him, Keena said. “Census results show you that our state, like the entire nation, is really diversifying. And for Republicans to be competitive, they need to branch out beyond wedge issues.”
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And one driver of population and vote-rich area, Loudoun County, has also emerged in the campaign as the poster child for conservative outrage about left-wing policies regarding transgender people and critical race theory. Loudoun also had a stark increase in the nonwhite population, with the white population in the county down from 68.7% in 2010 to 53.7%. That may also have a hand in exacerbating the racially charged politics in the school system.
Changes in Virginia will have much more of an effect on the state’s makeup of congressional representatives and state legislators as district lines are redrawn to reflect the changes in the state. However, those maps will not be finalized until after this year’s elections.
