Just a few weeks ago, Secretary of State John Kerry was giving constant updates about his bold new venture: to strike an agreement with Russia that would bring peace to Syria and finally set up peaceful, political negotiations to determine the fate of the war-torn country.
They were close in the summer. A target date was set for August.
A deal was finally announced, and Kerry was cautiously optimistic. His negotiating partner, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, said the deal signaled the start of “new relations” between the two countries with opposing views on what to do with Syria.
But in the end, the deal lasted about as long as the lifespan of a butterfly, two weeks.
The cease-fire in Syria didn’t last an hour before Syria bombed Syrian rebels. The U.S. quickly blamed Russia for failing to work with Syrian President Bashar Assad to stop the shelling.
And it never improved. A week later, a humanitarian convoy was bombed. Then other medical staff were injured.
The events forced the U.S. to turn from cautious optimists to outraged critics in a few quick days.
It fueled critics who mocked Kerry for spending months working with Russia, only to watch the fruit of that effort rot on the ground almost immediately. The deal may also have done serious harm to whatever legacy Kerry was hoping to cultivate at the State Department as a can-do, results-oriented negotiator.
Here’s how the deal was born so painstakingly, and how it died so quickly:
Mid-July — After months of negotiating in an effort to get Russia to adhere to an earlier cease-fire, Kerry says the two sides are close to a deal that could lead to U.S.-Russia cooperation on airstrikes against terrorist groups in Syria.
“We have some homework to do, but there is a possibility … of actually making some further progress,” he said.
July 26 — Kerry says a deal could be announced in August.
“[M]y hope would be that somewhere in early August in the first week or so, who knows, somewhere in there, we would be in a position to be able to stand up in front of you and tell you what we’re able to do, with the hopes that it can make a difference to the lives of people in Syria and to the course of the war,” he said.
Aug. 26 — Exactly one month later, Kerry says there is “clarity” on a deal, but no final deal.
Sept. 9 — After missing the August deadline, the U.S. and Russia announce an agreement that would see the start of a new cease-fire on Sept. 12. The deal encourages the U.S. to get its side of the Syrian conflict to stop fighting, and encourages Russia and its Syrian government ally to stop bombing moderate Syrians.
The deal envisions that after seven days of peace, and the ability of humanitarian resources to help those in need, the U.S. and Russia would launch a Joint Implementation Center to coordinate strikes against common targets.
Kerry is optimistic.
“It has the ability to stick, provided the regime and the opposition both meet their obligations, which we — and we expect other supporting countries — will strongly encourage them to do,” Kerry said.
Lavrov is also optimistic. “This is just the beginning of our new relations,” he said.
Sept. 12 — Less than an hour after the cease-fire was slated to take effect, Syria reportedly violated it.
Kerry downplayed the violence then by saying some fighting was still expected, and indicated that the U.S. side would be happy with a reduction of violence, even if it fell short of a complete cease-fire.
Sept. 13 — Defense officials say they’re skeptical of the idea of coordinating targets with Russia in Syria.
Sept. 14 — It becomes clear that Defense Secretary Ash Carter opposes the deal, and one official says it has “so many holes in it, you could drive a truck through it.”
The State Department admits that humanitarian aid is not flowing, and still refuses to say publicly whether the violence has been reduced to the point at which the seven-day clock can start.
Still, State says, “From what we’ve seen thus far, it’s worth continuing.”
Sept. 15 — Five days into the plan, Kerry and Lavrov openly accuse each other of failing to live up to the agreement.
“Secretary Kerry expressed concerns about the repeated and unacceptable delays of humanitarian aid, and emphasized that the United States expects Russia to use its influence on the Assad regime to allow U.N. humanitarian convoys to reach Aleppo and other areas in need,” spokesman John Kirby says.
Lavrov accuses the U.S. of protecting terrorists from Russian airstrikes.
Sept. 19-20 — Officials at the U.S., United Nations and around the world are shocked by the Sept. 19 bombing of a humanitarian convoy that was headed toward Aleppo.
The U.S. concludes on Sept. 20 that Russia was behind the bombing. Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes calls it an “outrageous action.”
Russia denies that it was involved.
Also on the 20th, another airstrike kills five medical workers near Aleppo.
Sept. 21 — Kerry issues a stern warning to Russia and Syria to ground all their aircraft.
“Last night we have reports of air strikes that hit a medical facility near Aleppo, and four aid workers were killed, despite the fact there is supposed to be a cessation,” Kerry said. “There are only two countries that have airplanes that are flying during the night, or flying at all in that particular area: Russia and Syria.”
Syria blames the U.S. for the unraveling cease-fire.
Sept. 23 — Nearing the end of his patience, Kerry says the U.S. is ready to “turn away” from the broken cease-fire unless Russia makes “extraordinary” efforts to stick to the deal.
The White House rejects the idea of a new sanctions bill aimed at entities helping Syria.
Sept. 28 — Days go by with no signs of progress, and increasing frustration in Congress about the lack of a plan. Then, in a morning call with Lavrov, Kerry says the U.S. is “making preparations” to suspend all U.S.-Russia dialogue on Syria, unless Russia is ready to adhere to the cessation of hostilities.
The decision comes exactly two weeks after the State Department had said the deal is “worth continuing” based on what it saw so far. Two weeks later, the State Department admits it has seen “nothing” from Russia over that time period.
“We’ve seen nothing since the agreement was reached in Geneva on Sept. 9 that would lead us to believe Russia’s serious about meeting its end of these commitments,” spokesman John Kirby said.
Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who have been skeptical of the deal, mock Kerry openly for saying he will punish Russia by cutting off negotiations with the U.S.
“We can only imagine that having heard the news, Vladimir Putin has called off his bear hunt and is rushing back to the Kremlin to call off Russian airstrikes on hospitals, schools, and humanitarian aid convoys around Aleppo,” the senators said in their sarcastic statement. “After all, butchering the Syrian people to save the Assad regime is an important Russian goal. But not if it comes at the unthinkable price of dialogue with Secretary Kerry.”
