China and the United States face a growing risk of stumbling into a conflict in the coming months, according to Asian officials who monitor Beijing’s foreign policy.
“The tensions are very, very high,” an Indo-Pacific official said. “There is a possibility that some kind of simple misunderstanding can lead to some problems.”
Officials from two other governments that work closely with President Trump’s administration offered similar assessments as the U.S. and China both have increased the pace of military operations in key Pacific hot spots. The U.S. military presence is regarded by allied countries as a deterrent to Chinese aggression, but the intensifying rivalry raises the prospect that saber-rattling will give way to a violent encounter that neither side truly wants.
“Anytime when you have military hardware in the region and when you have these responses — that people must take in response to, especially, what the Chinese are doing — that creates chances for miscalculation and accidents,” an Asian official said.
Their concerns dovetail with a senior Republican lawmaker’s recent prediction that China would instigate a confrontation “within the next three to six months.” The risk of a clash could be especially high “between now and November,” one of the sources agreed, surmising that Beijing will chart a bellicose course in the coming months in an attempt to gain leverage before negotiations with either a second Trump administration or Joe Biden’s incoming team.
“It’s not the U.S. or other like-minded countries that are really heightening the risk for collision or for accidents or misinterpretations; it’s the Chinese,” the Asian official said. “The onus is on the Chinese side because they’re the ones that are militarizing that part of the world.”
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo acknowledged the possibility of such incidents last week, adding he has tried to “reduce risk” through “true candor, identifying the places that you have a red line” and where, alternatively, the two sides can coexist.
“I think the real danger comes from misunderstandings and miscommunication and the failure to be honest about the things that matter to you, because others will move into that space, and then, conflict arises,” he told conservative talk show host Hugh Hewitt.
Trump’s reputation for unpredictability makes it more difficult for Pompeo to be convincing in those conversations, U.S. and allied sources have conceded.
“People don’t think he’s crazy like a fox,” a senior U.S. official said while describing how foreign governments view Trump. “Maybe they’re wrong. But due to the undisciplined behavior, the tweeting, and so forth, that’s not the impression he’s given people. [They think] that he’s erratic.”
That perception feeds into misgivings that Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping would authorize an operation that tests Trump’s willingness to defend Taiwan or “one of these smaller countries in the South China Sea,” where China has made sweeping territorial claims.
“Even now, despite all the increased arms sales and statements coming out of the U.S. vis-a-vis Taiwan, nobody’s quite sure that if China decides to push the envelope a little more with Taiwan, whether the U.S. will actually react or not,” the Indo-Pacific official said. “So, the tendency or lack of real consistency is what worries a lot of the allies of the U.S.”
Such a scenario might test Pompeo’s influence with Trump, as the former Kansas Republican lawmaker is both an ardent China hawk and the most influential member of the president’s national security team. And so, while allies might feel uncertain about Trump’s posture, the Chinese may not be sure that he would back down from a conflict involving an American ally.
“The Chinese haven’t done any such thing,” the senior U.S. official said of a Chinese attack.
“They’re not sure about Taiwan,” the official said. “Even in the midst of this huge Xi Jinping [military] build-up. So, they too don’t really know what he will decide.”
In any case, sources agreed that even an aggressive China would try to stop short of provoking retaliation from the U.S.
“I don’t think either the U.S. or China are interested in any kind of kinetic action,” the Indo-Pacific official said, suggesting military confrontation would more likely be the result of a mistake.
