Donald Trump, having won the Nevada caucuses, is now two primary victories from defeating his top two rivals and claiming the Republican presidential nomination.
If he beats Ted Cruz in the Texas primary next Tuesday, that would finish off Cruz as a viable candidate. Texas is Cruz’s home state. And if Trump wins the Florida primary two weeks later, that would all but eliminate Marco Rubio from the race. Florida is Rubio’s home state.
What would be left of Trump’s opposition after that? John Kasich. He’s hardly a powerhouse. He lacks a national campaign organization. If he loses his home state of Ohio to Trump on March 15, that would likely end his weak candidacy.
To stop Trump, the opposition must be reduced to a single candidate. In poll-based matchups, Rubio and Cruz defeat him. But none of Trump’s four rivals is ready to quit the race, including Ben Carson.
And there’s a downside to a Cruz win in Texas. That would keep Cruz alive and mean the non-Trump vote would be divided among four candidates. That is the recipe for Trump’s capture of the GOP nomination.
Trump victories in Texas and Florida are far from assured at this point, but are quite possible. In Texas, Cruz leads Trump, 37 to 29 percent, in the UT/Texas Tribune poll, which was taken before Trump’s Nevada victory. There hasn’t been a poll in Florida in the Republican presidential race since late January.
In last night’s Nevada caucuses, Trump showed new strengths, notably cracking through the 40 percent ceiling. He won 46 percent to Rubio’s 24 percent and Cruz’s 21 percent. An entrance poll found he ran 17 points ahead of Cruz in winning the evangelical vote. And he won the Hispanic vote.
Rubio is now zero for four, having finished third in Iowa, fifth in New Hampshire, and second in South Carolina. Cruz beat Trump in the Iowa caucuses, but he failed to gain any momentum from that.
Winning in Nevada puts Trump in a commanding position going into Super Tuesday on March 1. He leads in polls or is favored in every state except Texas and perhaps Virginia. In Massachusetts, a poll gave him 50 percent of the vote. John Kasich was in second place at 16 percent.
Politics, however, often produces surprises. Though Trump has won three straight contests, Cruz is well organized in Southern and border states next week. Winning one or more of them is possible. Rubio could win in Virginia. Kasich’s prospects on Super Tuesday are dim.
