During a holiday weekend when Honduras and Iran are in political chaos, North Korea threatens to launch missiles, and Michael Jackson seems to be more popular than Obama, it’s not hard miss an important political announcement that may sneak its way through the backdoors of mainstream media. Only in this case, it didn’t. Just the opposite, actually. You see, Sarah Palin likes to steal headlines.
Palin delivered an awkward speech on Friday – the day before Independence Day and one that probably wasn’t vetted or written on her behalf – but the message was simple: she’s done as the Governor of Alaska. But she said nothing more.
Palin’s annoucment last Friday came as a shock to most, and for many reporters, pundits, and political commentators across the country, it ruined their weekend right as they were about to head home. It even motivated Roger Simon, of The Politico, to write a satire piece for Tuesday.
What was she thinking? Why? Is she prepping for the 2012 presidential campaign? Will I see fireworks on the Fourth? No one, at the time, really knew, yet something had to be said.
Enter the number one D.C. beltway pastime: political speculation.
It’s a funny thing, really. It’s one of the few bi-partisan activities in D.C., both side lambasted and praised her – everyone was confused and looking for insight.
Huffington Post’s Chris Weigant was so desperate for insight that he even dug into a recent article in Runner’s World magazine:
“While it is so easy to slip into double meanings when talking about Sarah Palin (for example, I considered “Waiting For The Other Naughty Monkey Double Dare Red Shoe To Drop” as a title today… ahem), the title I did choose starts out as a literal one. Because I finally got around to reading Palin’s most recent interview, in Runner’s World magazine. And the article is accompanied by seven photos, not (as one may have expected) of Sarah Palin actually running, but instead of Sarah preparing to run. We’ll get into double meanings later, but first, let’s examine these preparing-to-run photos.”
One of the first, and most popular theories, suggests she’s being forced out by some soon-to-be-scandal involving ethics charges under an ethics bill she signed into Alaska law last year, or the possibility of the FBI investigating Palin for embezzlement, a charge the FBI denies:
“Van Flein threatened to sue Huffington Post, MSNBC, the New York Times and The Washington Post or anyone else who might “re-publish” an Alaskan blogger’s suggestion that Palin resigned because she was under federal investigation in connection with “embezzlement” charges (the FBI denies that they are investigating Palin about anything and we never used the word embezzlement or anything like it). These charges, the lawyer explained, “stem from” an investigation “pertaining to the construction of the Wasilla Sports Complex,” the $14.7 million hockey rink launched while Palin was mayor of the small Alaskan town. The Voice story, which examined the linkage between Palin and several contractors who worked on the complex, is the only piece cited by Van Flein, though he denounced it as “one of many fabrications about Sarah Palin.””
The other theory is that she’s prepping for a larger political career – either on the campaign trail in ’12 or pushing candidates in ’10 as Roger Stone outlines:
“As Bill Kristol, the only DC based analyst who “gets it” said the move also frees Palin to “write her book, give speeches, travel the country, and educate herself on some issues.” It also frees her to build a net work of fundraisers and supporters throughout the country – many of whom will be her TV viewers.
Palin will also be more in demand as a dinner speaker, fundraiser and campaigner than any other Republican in 2011. She can suspend her TV career and will have a chance to collect countless political IOUs along the way, campaigning for candidates and raising them money and hitting the State Republican dinner circuit. Demand for the “New Palin” will only increase.”
But there’s a finial theory out there: that Palin is done with politics. After all, she even said that politically, “If I die, I die.” And it’s not too hard to blame her.
Palin’s character was assaulted everyday on the ’08 campaign trail and even afterwards; her children were attacked on national television; and she returned to a harsh political climate in Alaska – where state representatives criticized her for leaving for a vice-presidential bid. In that context, it’s understandable why anyone would want to get out of the spotlight.
Palin did, however, manage to tease out a more independent tune with FOX News during an interview Monday:
“Palin also offered criticism of the Washington, D.C., political establishment, and even the Republican Party, which nominated her to be vice president last year.
“Obsessive partisanship” has hurt the party, she said, striking a more independent beat than the partisan tune she sang on the campaign trail.
“We have so many people who offer advice, but I’m going to continue to be, whether some of them like it or not, pretty darn independent, and not get wrapped up into a strong political machine that hasn’t been extremely successful in some ways.
[…]
Palin had cited attacks on her family and multiple ethics complaints that had forced her family to rack up hundreds of thousands of dollars in legal bills. As a result, it’s unlikely she’d run for president in 2012, suggested Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele.”
Is it a respite from politics so she can spend time with her family? Possibly. Is it a Nixon gag, saying she’s done with politics only to run for president? Maybe, and we won’t know until she announces something – on her terms.
The problem with political speculation is just that: it’s speculation. There aren’t any facts to go off of, only historical precedent and the assumption that the future may wind up mimicking the past, and that’s it.
