President Trump is frantically trying to stave off Republican defections in an impeachment process being driven by Democrats that will be doomed to failure if the GOP holds firm.
The biggest danger for Trump is the Senate, where some Republicans concede the president acted improperly when he pressured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate Democratic rival Joe Biden. None back an impeachment inquiry. They see no evidence Trump tied U.S. military aid to Zelensky agreeing to target Biden. But Senate Republicans have declined to offer Trump a blanket defense against possible wrongdoing, suggesting they could be swayed.
“I’m trying to sort through this in the most reasonable way,” Sen. Roy Blunt told reporters after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the impeachment inquiry. The Missouri Republican sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee, which has launched its own investigation into Trump’s telephone call with Zelensky and the unusual government whistleblower complaint that brought it to light.
As the inquiry unfolds and more information surfaces, there are about a half-dozen senators to monitor for potential cracks in a Republican conference that has largely closed ranks behind Trump.
At the top of the list of Trump detractors are Mitt Romney of Utah and Ben Sasse of Nebraska, both of whom have said the available facts are “troubling.” Also being watched closely are Susan Collins of Maine and Cory Gardner of Colorado, who are running for reelection in 2020 in blue states. Marco Rubio of Florida is a national security hawk periodically at odds with Trump’s foreign policy, and critics charge he is prone to shift his loyalties with the political winds. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, an elder statesman who is retiring next year, maintains a low profile and has nothing to lose.
For now, Republicans on Capitol Hill appear remarkably unified behind Trump, insisting they are confident this latest controversy will blow over.
The relative unity is in contrast to some of their initial reactions to previous White House scandals. After the launch of the Russia investigation, Trump’s comments about a white supremacist march in Charlottesville, and revelations that the children of illegal immigrants were being separated from their parents, Republicans fretted and publicly urged the White House to reverse course.
Gardner, facing an uphill climb for a second term, currently opposes the impeachment inquiry.
The near-unanimous Republican opposition to the impeachment inquiry so far is, in part, due to the shellacking the GOP absorbed in the midterm elections. House Democrats gained 40 seats, defeating Republicans who would have had the most to lose, politically, by defending the president.
But there are a few House Republicans to watch as the impeachment inquiry proceeds: Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, John Katko of New York, and Will Hurd of Texas, a former intelligence officer who is retiring from Congress next year. All three hold districts won by Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Rep. Rodney Davis of Illinois, who won reelection last year by less than 1% and represents a swing district, could find backing Trump all the way risky. Hurd, among the few House Republicans to criticize Trump over the whistleblower complaint, has a history of admonishing the president.
Also worth tracking is Rep. Don Bacon. The Nebraska Republican is running for reelection in a seat that Trump won by just 2.2 points. Meanwhile, Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, declined to exonerate Trump, although he rapped Pelosi for launching an impeachment inquiry before she had all of the facts.
“I was looking for the quid pro quo, which clearly there was not,” McCaul said. “I think the issue is the propriety of him asking a foreign government to look into [Biden.] That’s something we’ll be investigating on the committee. I don’t want to rush to judgment right now.”
