Joe Biden is within the margin of error of denying President Trump a win in Ohio and possibly a second term in the White House.
Biden, the presumptive 2020 Democratic nominee, leads the incumbent with 46% support to 45% in the crucial state that’s picked the presidential victor since 1964, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday. This is the university’s first survey since the two-term vice president and 36-year Delaware senator became his party’s apparent standard-bearer.
“You have to go back 60 years to find an election where Ohio was not a linchpin or a pathway to the presidency,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement. “That is why this very close horse race is so deeply consequential. The mantra in the backrooms of GOP and Democratic campaign headquarters has to be … ‘Don’t lose Ohio!’”
Quinnipiac University’s Ohio findings are echoed by polling averages calculated by RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight. RealClearPolitics lists the contest as a tie, including Wednesday’s survey. FiveThirtyEight gives Biden an average advantage of 2.4 percentage points.
Trump’s job approval has remained steady since 2018, with 44% who approve to 53% who disapprove. But he’s ceded ground to Biden on the issues of the day. The president is more trusted by voters to manage the economy, but Biden’s more trusted to deal with a crisis, to roll-out the federal government’s response to COVID-19, on healthcare, and race relations.
The trend will concern Trump and his campaign. The former reality TV star and real estate mogul beat 2016 Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in Ohio by 8 points, 52% to 44%, scooping up its 18 pivotal electoral votes.
The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted among 1,139 self-identified registered Ohio voters. They were contacted by live interviewers random dialing landlines and cellphones between June 18-22. The survey’s results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 points.
[Related: Trump gets poor marks for handling of protests as Biden widens lead in Wisconsin]
